Friday, June 28, 2013

MCP Charts/ P/L



Fill for the July $5 Calls at just over 25%, the longer MCP moves sideways or down, the more the profit is eaten in to. I always prefer to take the position off the table before the first correction sets in.

That however does not apply to an equity long that does not suffer from time decay and volatility changes.

 The 1 min chart with a negative divergence like this is usually a 50/50 toss up between a consolidation which is a correction through time and a pullback which is a correction through price.

 This is the typical correction through time, a very obvious / clear symmetrical triangle which has no outcome bias on its own, it depends on the preceding trend which in this case is up, so you could call this a small "Bull Pennant" which technical traders expect to break to the upside, which makes the pattern unpredictable as Wall St. likes to use technical analysis against technical traders (i.e. a head fake break below the triangle is something Technical traders would not expect to see and as such they'd take as a failure of the breakout move), even volume is perfect for the pattern.

The 2 min chart is largely in line so it's still a 50/50 toss up as to consolidation or pullback.

It's the 3 min chart that made my mind up that a pullback is a better than 50/50 outcome intraday, this could make for an excellent new position in MCP if it comes.

The 10 min chart shows the start of accumulation, you might remember what I said yesterday about price targets vs. where 3C accumulation started. 

MCP has already surpassed the point in which accumulation on the 10 min chart started, it typically moves well past that point eventually.

With the 15 min chart this strong, I have little doubt MCP will see further upside, I just prefer to rise it out in a non-leveraged position unless we get a pullback that discounts calls and 3C accumulation on the pullback, then I'd enter a new call position.


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