GLD, SLV and GDX / NUGT

I think by now with gold especially and silver to a lesser degree, dumping right as China opens clearly shows Chinese banks are selling assets to make up for the severe shortage in liquidity that the Chinese financial system has been experiencing this week like the US did in 2008 and a big part of that is because of the same US problem then..., Counter-party Risk.

However there seems to be asset managers who are and have been interested in accumulating the PMs, it's just every once in a while a Fundamental event that's not on the map pops up, that would be the severe Chinese Financial system's Frozen liquidity situation that has seen banks suspend all loans this week.

In any case, whether the PMs were getting ready to pop late yesterday or as I suspect may be the case (or likely both), the F_E_D's new story-line caused it, they have started to pop.

I'm holding positions open in PMs and GDX, but I probably wouldn't enter a new leveraged position at this point until there's a pullback that can be verified as seeing accumulation. Again Williams could easily cause that. Smaller pullbacks, if you are so inclined to enter the trade, seem a bit safer with either non-leveraged or 2-3x leveraged ETFs rather than options, for options, I'd prefer to do what I said above.

Here are the charts...

As of RIGHT NOW, a pullback of any size doesn't seem likely as we have some 1 min negatives, but we are missing the 2 min that gives a pullback a very high probability intraday, that could change of course at any moment, but the consolidation right now I think is just that, a consolidation, not likely a pullback unless the 2 min charts go negative.

IF the market makes a stronger move to the upside, that could do it, but ES is moving up and so far it hasn't changed the 2 min charts at all.

GLD 3 min looks like there may have been some movement late yesterday toward higher prices in GLD, but looking at 1 min charts, it looks as if the F_E_D announcement was the real cause, there was an initial short consolidation that was strongly accumulated and then the parabolic-like move straight up right after.

 The 5 min chart looks more like either they were preparing for a move higher or at least as of yesterday afternoon an accumulation phase was under way that morphed in to a move higher after the F_E_D double whammy this morning, the timing is near perfect.

I'll be holding positions for now for the following reason/s

 The gold futures 15 and 30 min charts showing the same accumulation as GLD (same timeframe) and it hasn't suffered at all, despite Chinese banks selling gold (just look at gold right as China opens)  to create some liquidity.

SLV 2 min has a similar question as GLD, but again

The 30 min chart is less ambiguous, like gold, it's very strong over the entire period. In fact I think if I had to chose again, knowing what I know now about Chinese liquidity, I'd chose silver over gold, but as far as metals being sold, even copper is being sold on China's open, gold is just a stronger asset to increase liquidity fast before the banks have to shutter their windows.
 

 Silver 3o and 60 min 3C futures are very strong, there's been no damage to them.

 As for miners, just as we saw a divergence between GG and GLD as well as SLW and SLV, GDX has been acting better recently (yesterday is the specific period I was talking about for Gold, Silver and Miners).

The 10 min GDX divergence is strong with no damage so I think we have a bigger move (much bigger) in store, I do think it will be choppy depending on how the equity market moves and of course the situation in China, but there's a counter (bullish) situation in India as well so it's hard to try to balance the scales for forecasting purposes between the market, a total unknown such as China's financial liquidity lock up- maybe it lasts a week, maybe like the US it just gets worse until the PBoC has to step in, but they are no where near as happy to do so as the F_E_D was in 2008/2009.

GDX 15 min also shows more upside, I think SLV/silver still has the edge.

NUGT 3x long Gold Miners ETF shows an intraday  1 min negative , if anything, this is the closest to an actual pullback rather than consolidation, and it's on a pullback with verified accumulation I'd consider opening a new NUGT long or adding to an existing one.

 NUGT 30 min seems to clearly have quite a bit of upside ahead of it.

This is the 3 min chart, it is perfectly in line so any intraday pullback has a very high probability of seeing accumulation in to the PB, making it a decent add to or new position.