What Retail Sees, How Wall St. Uses Technical Analysis Against Retail
I'll save you some time, but first the sentiment update which is crucial right now...
You gotta love that new name for retail traders, I never thought there would be worse than Yahoo Finance groups, there probably still isn't, but Twitter makes it easier to sort through.
In any case, from the post above first what Technical traders were expecting and this isn't from Twitter, it's from knowing technical traders as I use to drink the Kool Aid too....
" This is also what Technical Traders see, as mentioned last night, they see a triangle which IS NOT at all a consolidation/continuation triangle to the upside, but I'm sure before it broke down, most traders were looking at it as such.
The typical 5 points of contact for most consolidation/continuation patterns are there and the next thing they'd expect is a breakout to the upside, that didn't happen.
When a technical pattern fails, TA teaches to reverse your position which means they all went bearish as our earlier sentiment report made clear, THIS IS LITERALLY WHAT T.A. TEACHES TRADERS!
Now the next thing most traders will expect is a "test" of resistance at the lower triangle trendline, most traders will expect the market to fail there and then head lower.
This is what is more likely given Wall Street's propensity to use TA concepts against traders."
And here's where we are right now on a SPY 60 min chart...
Note the last three price candles running up in to the triangle's resistance, we have a big momentum candle, the next loses momentum and rejects higher prices with the longer upper wick and the third actually backs off from resistance, exactly what I said Technical traders would expect yesterday as you can see above. More importantly, we have confirmation in the sentiment report above,
" twittertar ds already shorting... They started up again, still bearish. Amazing."
This is what Technical traders expected, it helps Wall St. accomplish their goals to give Technical traders what they expect and then once they're committed, turn the tables, as always using TA against traders because it's so predictable.
Here's the next chart I posted yesterday of how I expected it to go down.
I expected the market to push right up to resistance at "1", a short failure at "2" which fills technical traders expectations and gets them to short, then eventually after enough shorts are in place to squeeze them and use them as the fuel to push prices above the triangle, the move at #3/#4 should take place and ultimately #5.
Here's what was written below this chart yesterday.
"At "1" the market moves to resistance, "2" the market makes a little jiggle making it look like resistance is holding, shorts will enter, longs will generally sell, "3" then the market blast above the triangle, new shorts are squeezed, older shorts from Friday are squeezed and their buying sends the market higher, traders see that it was a dip they should have bought and they chase it buying too, now you have all the bears buying to cover their shorts and the bulls buying to chase prices above the triangle, Wall St. doesn't have to do anything but wait.
At "4" volume should pick up as shorts are squeezed and longs jump in. This gives us our "Crazy Ivan" shakeout, we look for distribution in to rising prices, that's where we want to dump any longs and get our shorts in order.
*This is what I see as the most probable outcome, some details may differ a bit as there are a lot of dynamics in the market, but that's the gist of it."
At last check, here we are still goofing around right below triangle resistance. 3C is showing an intraday 1 to 2 min negative divergence, nothing big, this is in my view, Wall St. giving traders what they expected as we can see from the Twitter Stream.
The entire point yesterday and still today is, "Why should Wall St. dump any money in to moving the market the way they want when they can simply use retail to do the job for them?"
This would not be possible if Technical Traders weren't so predictable, so predictable I drew the exact chart we are looking at right now, yesterday!
This is the dogma, the laziness and the lack of "thinking for yourself" and instead following gurus who write the same thing over and over again in TA books.
Enjoy the show while it lasts.
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