Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Market Update- HYG

HYG (High Yield Corp. Credit) is not only one of the biggest institutional risk on assets, it's also a SPY Arbitrage asset because of the fact so many institutions trade large credit positions and HY when they want to express a risk on sentiment and IG (Investment Grade) when they want to move to safety or risk off.

What is interesting is that HYG is an example of what I just showed you, the bigger base as well as the earlier note that every time you look there's something different or new.

An hour ago HYG was pretty much positive (very much so) on the 1 min intraday timeframe which  is nice for a quick move, but it doesn't have the bigger base to support a longer or more extended move, I figured it didn't matter as institutional money had accumulated and didn't seem to sell any so although I haven't seen it, it made some sense that the market could turn without having these larger bases in place.

Just look at how HYG has changed and remember as an arbitrage asset, when it moves up, it is goosing the market higher, either as manipulation or just correlation.
 The 1 min is a sharp upside leading positive, but as is often the case with a 1 min intraday negative which it went slightly negative in red within the larger leading positive, it caused a lateral consolidation, this is where institutional accumulation and distribution are most often seen, in tight ranges.

 During that range the 3 min chart which was not positive went leading positive, that's the longest intraday timeframe.

Even more surprising, the first institutional timeframe of 5 min went leading positive, you can be sure this isn't retail buying HYG, most haven't even heard of it although it holds more sway over the market than anything on their charts.

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