Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Sentiment Update

Earlier and yesterday I said I thought retail traders were getting whipsawed and chopped to pieces.

From my sentiment update...

This is one of the better traders on twitter:

"Pretty shitty day for me overall#waited in aapl puts early morning .. Then got out for a small profit now they explode lol !!"

"Took a $3.5k loss on the 165 calls and rolled into 164s. whipsaw city today. Playing small and tight now"

So it's even chopping the better traders and killing the retail shorts.

Yesterday I showed a chart of how tight these swings are under increased volatility, not just in amplitude, but in all ways. I mentioned it's nearly impossible for traders to hold any position, I can't imagine not having the tools we have and that's hard enough.

 I'm just trying to give some idea of how large a reversal area is, you can see recently they are tiny, but very volatile so positions are stopped out easily.


imagine going short after the break is confirmed on5/22 under $167 and the next day have to decide whether to cover or not as the market gaps down but runs to close near the highs, if you went long that day, the next day the market gaps down and you're out, then a big gap up on 5/28 that traders will chase, but there's nothing left for them once they get in, they bought at the top, if any one went short (and they always want confirmation so they don't go short at the reversal, the next day they're likely stopped out and if they went long on 5/29-5/30, they're crushed on 5/31. By the time the shorts are in on confirmation on 5/31, they're crushed yesterday. You heard the guy above, one of the better traders and he barely got out with his skin.

That's meat grinder volatility.



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