Syrian / Market Sensitive Assets

Just from a quick look (mostly at futures), there are a few things of note today. VIX futures are intraday a little weak in to the close, I believe though this is more about keeping them flat and not rallying as the longer 5 min chart is solidly positive, this suggests traders are accumulating VIX futures which indicates fear in the market, fear = market decline.

Gold itself is not really impressing me that much, there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever that gold went through an accumulation phase and was ready to rock higher, the start of the new week with the new Syrian diplomacy vs war footing took away the bid for a flight to safety asset, gold. The 1 min chart intraday is positive at today's lows, but that's not enough to do anything with beyond a day trade. The longer term GLD charts are much more positive, the question is whether they too will shift due to a potential new and unexpected Syrian outcome.

Interestingly Crude futures (Brent) which saw a sudden and sharp decline as the Syrian situation deescalated (at least that's the market's interpretation for now, is suddenly showing positive1, 5 and 15 min futures charts. I wouldn't say USO (WTI crude) is seeing the same kind of activity, but they are from two different parts of the world.

Silver/SLV has some sudden, unexpected strength brewing, for the most part it is in SLV, I would be VERY close to taking a long position out there if only the shorter charts linked up with the longer, but it seems something important is happening there.

In currencies I'd say the $AUD and $USD are in line, no interesting surprises, however the EUR/JPY which was behind the market's support yesterday, especially early before short covering kicked in, is showing a significant negative divergence. 


The Yen is also showing a significant divergence, the Euro VERY negative, the Yen very positive, this would send the EUR/JPY which is the carry trade I showed last night that pulled the market up yesterday as they moved tick for tick.

If I could, I'd be short the EUr/JPY or you could play it short the Euro (FXE) and long the Yen (FXY). This is perhaps one of the most significant developments.