First the positions that were set up as longs including MCP and FSLR along with several others were set up based on their own merit so once again retail is seemingly on the wrong side of the market as our rank is extremely high in the options tracking portfolio, which is useless information for us (other than to say we have been opening some good positions), but it shows us just how wrong retail has been getting it as of late.
As of just a few minutes ago our Options Tracking portfolio ranked like this for the new week and the month of September (this is all options positions opened, which is far more than I'd run as part of a dedicated trading portfolio, but since each member takes what they like, I have to track them all).
*MCP Update below...
Our weekly rank thus far is #3 of 526 portfolios and we are not taking aggressive options positions with everything bet on black in OTM options and hitting three red cherries, these are just steady as she goes, plugging away.
The weekly return thus far is almost 27% on the portfolio vs the SPX +1.6%
The monthly rank for September thus far is #13 of nearly 900 portfolios (894) and a 36.05% portfolio return vs the SPX's 2.98%.
The point simply being, this shows how wrong retail has been and it has been for sometime as our rank every week is near the top 10.
As for the MCP September $6 calls, the P/L came out as follows (I'll show you why I closed them).
At the fill of $.76 and a cost basis of $.60 (I lost some gains on theta today) the P/L comes out to nearly +27%
As for MCP, as far as equity/long positions, I don't see any major trouble with the Trend Channel nor the X-Over Screen, I see some 3C charts and had to make a decision.
These calls are September expiration so Theta (time decay) accelerates and becomes a bigger problem for holding gains,
if I saw a strong probability that MCP could add significantly, I'd leave the Sept. Calls open, but with Theta (time decay), even small MCP gains can see the options position lose gains.
Yesterday I posted an update of MCP coming out of a second triangle
The difference between volume out of yesterday's triangle vs today's volume is yesterday's looked like real breakout volume, today's looks a lot more like "Churning".
The 1-3 min intraday charts are largely in line like this 1 min above, they are not leading positive, therefore they are not giving us a reason to believe additional strong gains are probable at this time and with expiration in September rolling up on us, we need those strong gains to fight off time decay.
The 5 min chart which seems a bit strange to me considering intraday charts being in line, is obviously negative, I'd dismiss this as an anomaly if it weren't for the following charts.
The 10 min chart shows migration from the 5 min and the same negative character.
The 15 min chart isn't that negative, just a small relative negative today, however the last one was similar and created a consolidation, even a consolidation would kill accrued gains in MCP calls.
Considering I have no immediate positives and some negatives that are clear, I see no reason to continue to hold MCP SEPTEMBER OPTIONS, the equity longs are a different situation for now.
The 30 min chart is showing a strong positive base, but also local resistance coming in to play, even if we consolidate at resistance, Theta can cause MCP to go from a winner to a loser in days.
The 60 min chart, clearly leading positive.
This is why I still like MCP long as an equity position or maybe even longer dated options (expiration), but for September, I don't see probabilities right now on the side of further gains so there's no reason to leave the gains at risk.
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