***Market Update

This is an important time because the signals of a market move to the downside are in numerous places, it is very difficult to determine whether the initial cycle that was set up had been altered, whether the cycle is still going to move toward initial expectations or whether some of the smaller details have been wiped clean from the cycle, it has been accelerated and we do not get the pullback to the lower end of the range followed by the strong upside move, but rather we have some amalgamation of these events and what we have already seen this week is essentially the upside move.

The reason this is important is because any positions taken on a head fake move (yesterday's move) in this area were initially considered to be of lower value and profitability. The head fake changed that and made it a better looking trade, still the better looking trade was accumulation at or on a head fake below the bottom of the range which we are far from. 

I don't want to enter shorts expecting the lower range move to occur when in fact we are past that and in to the expected upside move which we wanted to short in to form the primary trend down, these are two totally different trades, 1 needs leverage and is likely good for several days on the downside and the other is the setting up of core short positions meant to be position or trend trades. 3C should clear this all up by showing us whether the distribution is along the lines of a shorter term move down or whether there's heavy distribution that looks like a primary trend lower which would make a new lower low in the market, RIGHT NOW I'M LEANING TOWARD THE SECOND OPTION, that should explain to you why I've been more interested in cashing in longs than starting new shorts. If the market is going to put in a larger distribution event for scenario #2, then it will take more time, however any of the long options positions would lose value even if there were minimal upside gains in their underlying assets because of Theta (time decay). On the other hand, shorts would have more time to develop, this is why it's important to try to determine which scenario we are looking at and a lot of this is on the fly as fundamental Syrian events change.

So I'm going to look in to some other indications, but first I wanted to give you a market update before switching my layout.

It seems clear that Syria and the changing scenario there is largely behind all of this, yesterday the Naval map had more Russian Warships in the Mediterranean than US warships, today it's all about diplomacy which I'll have some thoughts on later, this is truly a case of, what a difference a day makes.

I'll try to give a broader example with the SPX and then highlight charts in the other averages.

SPY

 The 3 min chart shows the range and the top of the range, a head fake move above is not surprising if price was to return to the bottom of the range rather than make a new low. The head fake move above the top of the range would be even less surprising and more expected if this were the real top and heavy distribution was to take place here.

Point A shows where there was distribution to send prices lower near the top of the range, I HAVE VERY LITTLE DOUBT THIS WAS THE PLAN AND FUNDAMENTAL EVENTS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS IN SYRIA RE: DIPLOMACY HAVE CHANGED THE ENTIRE LANDSCAPE. 

Point "B" shows the strong distribution that has been ion place as mentioned last night and continues in a deep leading negative divergence at a new low even below the area when price was low in the range.

 5 min, the yellow line represents the top of the range, the red represents the probability price was going to do as expected from Friday's EOD update until the market had to discount new information on Syria, serious information that took us from war-footing to diplomacy.

The 10 min chart also shows heavy distribution, here a lot of it is above the range so it appears clear that the targeted areas like Dow $15k, SPX 50-day ma.a, and the others mentioned last night, were targeted to create demand via a short squeeze or long sentiment, this creates the ability for Wall St. to sell or short in to that demand which is a large reason why head fake moves exist as Wall St. knows (as do we) just how technical retail traders will react and that allows them to use those reactions to their benefit (as it does for us as well).

 The 15 min chart is positive at the lower range and in line since, it had no reason not to be as the idea was the pullback to the lower end of the range would create a stronger divergence for a stronger upside move to short in to, so this chart makes perfect sense.

This is the 4 hour chart, deeply leading negative, this is exactly why we wanted to use a strong move up in prices to sell short in to, this represents the market's primary trend and that is full-out bearish so any upside is a gift to short in to considering this is telegraphing where the market is going on a primary trend basis.

Custom TICK Indicator -2 min vs SPy

 This is today's TICK, there are a number of market breadth indications as well, like the number of new highs yesterday.

DIA

 1 min intraday is quite clear.

As is the 3 min

And the 5 min, the message here is the move above the range yesterday has been sold in to / distributed.

IWM

 3 min with the lower accumulation end of the range and higher end of the range, the sharp leading negative on the break above the range, suggesting pretty clearly this was and is indeed a head fake move/false breakout as expected from yesterday's analysis.

The 15 min chart is positive at the lower end of the range and looks as it should considering the ORIGINAL CYCLE SET UP. If there are new plans, they'll take a little longer to filter to the 15 min chart.

This looks exactly as I'd expect considering this range was an accumulation range for a strong upside rally to short in to.

QQQ

 2 min leading neg. as prices move above the range, spells "Head-fake"

QQQ 10 min, if indeed the 15 min chart's original cycle that was set up has now changed because of new fundamental information re: Syria, then this 10 min should migrate to the 15 min chart soon, then we'll have an answer as to the highest probabilities and if there's a revised market plan