VIX Futures: VXX / UVXY / XIV

We have good confirmation for a shorter term trade here like a call or a leveraged ETF, I'm not convinced of a longer term trade (as you know, VIX moves opposite the market), that means there's still a very open and unresolved matter of how much top/distribution we get here. Normally I'd say quite a bit more, but several things this week did not go according to the cycle that was set up, it seems Syria has more fundamental influence than any of the past MENA revolutions, for this reason it makes the market highly unpredictable which it already is with increased volatility and the probability of the hedge fund herd breaking apart.

This is why I think good signals are more important now than ever.

As for VXX or UVXY long, I mentioned them as longs earlier and that I'd be looking to get involved, I may even add to them if I am given the chance and it looks reasonable.

For now, I chose calls/leverage because I don't see this as a long trade like we might expect as the trend returns to a primary down.

 VXX 1 min intraday

VXX 2 min

UVXY 5 min confirms

And the inverse XIV with a leading negative 2 min (as well as several other intraday timeframes) also confirms.

VIX Futures. VXX is based on the VIX futures, but in this case I give the futures even more wieght because as I said yesterday, the most likely way the market can support itself seeing as how the carry currencies were failing is via SPY arbitrage and the 3 components of SPY arbitrage are VXX, HYG and TLT so price movement in VXX may have more to do with an attempt to support the market with the SPY arbitrage than actual demand. 

Since VIX futures ARE NOT part of the Arbitrage scheme, I trust the signals there to be cleaner.

This is the intraday 1 min

VIX futures get more impressive though as the 5 min is clearly positive, but here's where it really gets interesting...

VIX futures 15 min positive, this is why I'd add to VXX on a dip or a head fake move below today's intraday lows, because of the strength in futures.

As far as why I don't think this is a longer term trade as in, market crash yet, this 15 min chart "should" see a new leading 3C high, that's when I'll be convinced there's significant fear.