Trade Idea: AMZN (Short)

I already have exposure to AMZN as a core short (you may recall the long wait for >$287.50 and >$300) , I may very well add to it. I do prefer AMZN as an equity short as a trending position, this is obviously a longer term position.

As far as options, I'm not convinced this is the best place for them, but I'd be open to some puts if I felt the trade looked strong.

If I didn't have any exposure to AMZN short and liked it, I'd consider phasing in to the position in 2 or 3 parts, depending on the position size.

 AMZN's long term primary trend (2-day), note the time-scale in terms of years and specifically the strong leading negative divergence/distribution as AMZN moved above the psychological $300 level.

 4 hour chart with 2 of the "Phasing in" trade levels, >$287.50 and >$300, the current 3C position is leading negative since we came off the July top.

 60 min leading neg. at the July top and in leading negative position now, but 3C has been moving "in line".

I don't think it will take very long before the shorter term divergences move to these charts. The real damage though is on the longer 2-day and 4 hour charts, everything else is just timing the position.

 The 15 min chart is a significant timeframe, we nearly doubled a portfolio in less than 2 months just trading from 15 min signals. You can see the July negative, a small positive for this last run up and now the 15 min going negative again. I don't see an obvious head fake area for AMZN to hit other than $300, which it has already hit. As far as initial targets, all of the popular moving averages have provided support in the past, the 50, 100 and 200 day. For those who may want to pyramid the short (see my article "Making more than 100% on a short"), then these areas and bounces off them would be where I'd be adding to AMZN.

 Now from the shorter timeframes, the 2 min and the head fake move above $300 in yellow, this is a pretty sharp divergence, I expect it just gets worse and moves down the line.

The 10 min chart is negative, it has obviously migrated to the 15 min chart so I don't think it's long before the longer timeframes get real ugly as well.

I do like AMZN any where above $300 as a short play.