AAPL on the Radar

I'd put AAPL on the trading radar as a trading position, I'm not sure about a core short as of yet. April through June I knew something was up with AAPL and I assumed it was a counter trend rally building, apparently it was Icahn building a position in AAPL and before anyone mentions the the accumulation we saw back then not possibly being Icahn over that long of a period for the simple and elegant reason that it didn't appear on his 10Q, I'd remind you that the SEC has a proovision in which any acquisitions that are part of building a larger position and if the discovery of those positions would harm the final outcome, Icahn can request that it not be included on the 10Q until the position is filled, Buffet did this 2 quarters in a row when accumulating IBM so yes, Icahn could very well have been who was accumulating during that time frame.

In any case it's also reasonable to believe that Icahn won't let AAPL fall, that stands to reason except for 1 fact, he's a bully, a cool bully that I enjoy watching especially when he makes a fool out of someone who desperately deserves it like Bill Ackman who comes out and discloses his short in Herbalife like he's some kid with a magnyfying glass about to burn an ant hill and makes the mistake of getting in to a screaming match with Icahn on CNBC. Why do you really think Icahn bought up the float in Herbalife? It was so Ackman had no way to cover and thus the price rises. I'm not saying Icahn is just a bully, he's a smart bully who takes advantage of anyone's idiocy, one of my best friends worked at Motorola when he wanted to split the company in to the radio (like police radio) and phone (handset) divisions and he had everyone right down to the employees in fear (I also had the former CEO of Motorola in one of my Technical Analysis classes, I found out because that particular night I was trashing the Motorola stock and he came to me after the class and told me, he was an elderly GENTLEMAN and told me he was CEO when cell phones where the size of a brick so no hard feelings and he agreed about Motorola---sigh of relief as you might imagine).

He mentioned in a tweet that he has a website coming on line and he's pushing CEO for a bigger share buyback, here's a link to the story.

The point being is Icahn will not hesitate to make an example of AAPL, in fact AAPL is the perfect company to make an example of because they are so large, only GOOG might be more impressive.

So we never know with Icahn and should keep an eye on AAPL, but for now, here's what I see.

 Charts like this 3 min are deteriorating badly...

The 5 min as well

The 15 min

And now the 30 min.

However as a warning not to go too far too fast with AAPL, especially with breaking Icahn news with its own website coming online...

 The 60 min chart is picture perfect from accumulation to a confirmed trend, I'd want to see this break down before entering a core short, but a trading position might be worthwhile.

The other note is the 1 & 2 min charts aren't as ugly as I'd like them yet.

There is this ascending triangle-like price pattern and any price moves above or below will be on my alert system for a potential entry.

This is not a true ascending triangle or at least it's sloppy, but AAPL lovers will view it that way and that means they expect an upside breakout, that would be the perfect bull trap so I'll put it on the alert system and I'd suggest you set some price alerts if you like the position, we'll see if we can't find a higher probability/lower risk entry.