Thursday, October 24, 2013

VIX Futures May be a Position Shortly

That would either be VXX long or calls or the 2x leveraged UVXY is another alternative.

Much like last Friday when I believe word of the Chinese not injecting capital started making the rounds and the market deteriorated rapidly, it looks like they were watching and ready today and once again for the third time in a row, China did not inject the bi-weekly liquidity, the market doesn't seem to like this.

A s for VIX futures... You may recall last night in the Daily Wrap a chart of VXX and the notation that this was the first day since last week that the VXX slightly underperformed its natural correlation and part of the reason I suspected the market would be up today (but largely as noise in the trend).

Things got intense last Friday and I'm assuming that is after it was discovered the larger Thursday Chinese reverse repo/open market operation was withheld. Well it's Thursday, they withheld again and suddenly the VIX futures are coming alive, we can see some of this in VXX, but t's especially clear in the actual VIX futures (not spot VIX).


 I pointed out yesterday's intraday VXX weakness and today that has reversed.

It is making its way through longer charts just as the SPY negative is now making its way through longer charts (the two trade opposite of each other and thus opposite signals is confirmation).

 The larger divergence in VXX (positive) is still in place on this 15 min chart, note when it started.

However what grabbed my attention more than VXX was the actual VIX futures that 
VXX is based on.

The 1 min VIX Futures chart.

The 5 min chart leading positive in to the flag-like consolidation of yesterday.

And the 15 min leading positive is still in place, again, note when it started.

I prefer not to have long term position in VIX, so I lean toward options, but UVXY could work well two with its 2x leverage.

I'll let you know if I decide to open a position.

Also, I know it has been a long time, but I'm seeing something in BIDU as well- coming next.

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