With some of the other signals such as the market averages and their signals intraday (negative), the VIX signals (positive) some of the individual stocks, etc. my thoughts last night that we'd see higher prices today likely facilitated by a SPY Arbitrage activation and as such not anything of real substance (manipulation intraday isn't of substance), my opinion was today's higher prices would be largely noise in the trend.
So here's what's driving the market (and I show you this because in my view it highlights the weakness if the market needs all of this to move up)...
As suspected last night in the daily wrap, SPY arbitrage was activated and helping the market.
The Most Shorted Index (R3K) vs the R3K is seeing a squeeze which is giving this flag-like price pattern that distinct short squeeze look (bno significant pullbacks)...
In addition, a carry trade...
This is the AUD/JPY in candlesticks vs ES in purple, note the carry trade is peeling of to the downside and ES will lose support from this asset.
And the single currency future, $AUD and you can see why the carry cross is failing as the AUD has a 3C negative divergence turning it down and with it the AUD/JPY, it's not so much JPY strength as AUD weakness.
So that being the case, I'm looking toward a put/leveraged short, but will remain patient until I have a signal that just can't be ignored, as always,
Probabilities are not the same thing as a high probability trade.
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