Wednesday, November 13, 2013

QE-Jerk reaction

Today's movement is all knee jerk reaction based on the "hint" in an interview by an ECB member, given to the Wall St. Journal that "No options are off the table, including QE or Asset Purchases" which would have some legal road blocks.

Either way, it's parabolic and knee jerk, however...

I have said the last week that with now what has become a 2.5 week clear range, I was surprised we didn't get a shakeout move above it, many members yesterday wrote about the retail bullishness and suggested a bull trap may be in the works.

The SPX cycle and almost 2.5 trading weeks of range/chop.

What is an interesting question is whether this was leaked before the WSJ article came out or not, there's a lot of money to be made for those with that information. The reason I mention it is because of this earlier post...

Market Update: Trying for SPY Arbitrage

Things are starting to move faster so I have to keep updates short as things move before I can finish them and I don't want to miss opportunities.

 As part of an Arbitrage manipulation, VIX has to be smashed lower, we saw signs of that earlier in the post above and this is VXX intraday, but...

We are also seeing signs of positive divergences suggesting this knee jerk move and VIX smash lower may be starting to end.

The price move is too parabolic for me anyway and they usually don't end well.

 HYG is in line intraday as Arbitrage requires and as we saw earlier, but FAR from supporting the SPX (green), today is in yellow.

 The earlier positives in HYG that gave rise to the early Arbitrage activation post are now going negative in HYG as well, it is because of these early signals that I would have any suspicion that the story may have been leaked before its release.

Any mention of more QE, even in Europe is going to send bulls in to a tizzy.

Sentiment intraday so far is not keeping up with the SPX.

And CONTEXT is bouncing above and below, no trend there.

It's just time to watch assets carefully and the market to make sure. I may provide additional updates as they come in if they are helpful.


No comments: