Gold Follow Up

Today's gap up in GLD is great momentum for call positions, it's a big move as well, +1.7%, in options land, you only get so many of those big momentum moves before expiration and I've been in the GLD position way too long and the Theta has eaten it alive. I have to make a decision, "Do I think there will be a similar move before the 21st without a pullback or gap fill because even if GLD ends up higher by the 21st, it's not like stocks, the Theta eats away every hour.

I decided there's a big enough chance because GLD in my view is coming out of a head fake move and the momentum opportunity is there so the one call position that's still pretty healthy and half of the one that is not is about as much exposure as I'm willing to take on that side of the equation.

The UGLD (3x long GLD) is meant as a trending, longer term position, but with that gap, I have to consider the probability of a pullback and I'd rather take the gains from opening the position just last week and re-openm it at a better price point.

 I'm going to give this a little time (hour or so) and see if there might be a better fill intraday.

This one I closed, the equity 3x long GLD.

As far as GLD, I love it, that's not the question though when dealing with options or leveraged products, if I'm long GLD itself, I'll sit through the draw down of a pullback, I think GLD and GDX are both going a lot higher, but leveraged products have a personality of their own as many of you know.

As far as the GLD charts now, strong with a decent chance for a gap fill, there's also a decent chance she keeps going, but I put a higher probability on a gap fill and the intraday chart is what I'll be watching to make any further decisions.

 The 60 min chart has a strong "W" base w/ the second half stronger than the first, below the red trendline is the head fake, it's big so the following move to the upside should have strong momentum.

The 10 min chart shows exactly where the head fake move was executed, distribution right above support, then huge accumulation as they buy lots of supply on the cheap.

The 5 min chart shows the same.

It's the intraday chart not confirming and leaving a big gap that I'm worried about. Seven years ago I'd call this a breakaway gap and be thrilled, but the market has been ruthless the last 4 years about filling gaps so the tip goes to a gap fill, but GLD still a very strong longer term position, IT'S ON A CORRECTION I WANT TO ADD BACK EXPOSURE TO GOLD.