IWM Trade EXAMPLE

After looking at the TF 1 min futures (the 5 min are in line and nothing special), I considered an IWM call as a short term trade, maybe even day trade, then I looked at the IWM and saw the probabilities even for a short term trade aren't looking good, "IF" the IWM looks like this in the morning (the same set up), I'd enter a options position (call/long) or maybe URTY, but I'd fully expect and be prepared for that to be a day trade.


Here's what I mean about the probabilities just not being there and this looking more corrective (the fact it's the IWM, hit hardest tends to confirm). First the 5 min chart which is what I really pay attention to with Futures isn't anything other than in line and that's moving down, so no probabilities for anything other than overnight or soon (in to the close?)

As for the IWM where action will pick up tomorrow were it left off today...

Since there's so much dispersion between the averages and Industry groups, it's hard to view this as even a mini cycle.

 Since the bulk of what I have for probabilities is on a 1 min chart, I need to look at the IWM's 1 min chart trend which isn't good, negative divergence after negative have taken it lower.

Intraday here's the 1 min positive, but this is about the best I have, like I said, if this set up where there tomorrow morning, I'd take oit for a day trade or whatever it gives, but not overnight.

 The 2 min chart is barely seeing any migration of the divergence and this is just a 2 min chart, not even a 5 min

5 min is in line as you see, I rarely would take even a quick trade without at least the 5 min being divergent.

Then there's the bigger picture on the 15 min of the Channel Buster and a leading negative divegrence at the Channel Buster.

I can't take this position, probabilities are one thing and my guess is the probabilities are the IWM moves higher from here, but "High probabilities/low risk trades" are another thing, it's not here.