The NUGT/ DUST switch-off in the Trading Portfolio (that I'm trying to maintain as an experiment to see if I'll have the time I need to start trading again without compromising any of my work here and without putting my hard earned money in danger because I don't have the time to properly risk manage and otherwise manage positions. I think a real, live portfolio (smaller in nature because they are the most challenging to manage) will be beneficial as an example portfolio, but it isn't meant as a "Follow my positions" portfolio because the positions entered are a function of what exposure I have, what looks good at the time, etc, it's not the best of the best, it's just the best for what's available and my time at the time,
this is one of the things I fear most, that such a portfolio (which would be easy to display) would become a "follow me" portfolio which it's never meant to be, I'd trade just about any position I highlight.
In switching from NUGT to DUST I am NOT implying by ANY means I no longer like GDX (gold miners) or the 3x long gold miners, NUGT, I'm simply expressing my opinion that the gap created today is likely to be filled. Upon any gap fill (total or partial), I will re-enter NUGT long as a trading position and I have one as a long term position that is staying in place.
The P/L on the NUGT position just closed looks like this...
As for the charts that made me make up my mind, the gold charts had something to do with it, additionally the NUGT and DUST charts also had a role.
This is the overall probabilities, as I say, "Go with the probabilities" and on a 60 min chart, these are strong. GDX...
Leading positive divegrence, it looks like a stage 1 "W" type base is complete with a head fake move already in place and accumulated with the highest level on the chart.
Thus I love NUGT, the DUST trade is just a counter-trend (3C) trade.
NUGT 60 min is also very strong like GDX.
NIGT 30 min is very strong so I have no problem with the probabilities of gold miners (GDX/NUGT) higher .
The 10 min chart and a very impressive leading positive in the head fake area where supply and cheap prices make it easy and advantageous to accumulate,
however today created quite a gap and gaps over the last several years have been filled in a very thorough manner-I wish they weren't.
NUGT 2 min chart tells me it looks like a pullback in to the gap is likely, otherwise I want to keep a fairly short leash on DUST as it's not a probability trade, but a counter trend so I don't want to be stuck with it when I don't believe in it longer term.
DUST 3 min has a similar/opposite leading positive on its gap down this morning.
This is why I'm trying to trim around the fat or thread the needle and close NUGT at a slight gain and try to pull some out of DUST before heading back to NUGT hopefully at a lower price.
DUST 5 min shows a very different chart, leading negative so I don't think it has more than a gap fill/bounce in it.
DUST 30 min is interesting to study, but the punchline is the current highs have a sharp leading negative 3C divergence, like GDX has a leading positive, that's good confirmation.
Remember the NUGT and GDX 60 min positive charts, DUST 60 min is the exact opposite as it should be, leading negative, thus I only see a bounce in the gap at best, after that I'm looking to re-enter trading longs in NUGT.
No comments:
Post a Comment