MCP Update

MCP is a longer term long position that I like a lot, I think it has the potential of trending in a primary uptrend despite what the market may be doing, but it is still in a stage 1 base which is just about as volatile as a stage 3 top, they do often make for good trading positions because of the volatility.

I have left a core MCP long position open and it's doing well considering, up around +10%, but last Thursday I closed the trading position at a small loss of just over 1%, my mistake was not closing it sooner. This is the post from the last MCP update Thursday Feb. 27th when the trading position was closed, Closing MCP Trading Position, Leaving Core Long position in place

It looks like there's a decent chance MCP's short term (trading) charts may be coming back to a place where it makes sense to watch it carefully for a chance to enter a new long trading position at a lower cost basis and thus less risk.

I think you've seen the numerous longer term , very positive MCP charts so instead of posting all of those again as nothing has changed, I'll just let this daily  chart (one of the strongest divergences we use) speak to MCP's longer term bullish tone.

 Daily chart with an exceptionally large base, the more gas there is in the tank, the further the base can support price, this is why I think MCP will enter a primary (bull market) uptrend, however it is still in the base area.

The 60 min chart shows a large positive ROC in 3C, this happened not too long after GS made some comments that sent MCP lower, I suspect they are one of the main buyers.
We see this kind of increased intraday action as we near the end of stage 1 bases.

The intraday charts are coming back on the positive side, just like yesterday, new divergences (since we were in a pullback a positive divegrence signifying the end of the pullback would be a new divergence) start on the fastest timeframes and if they are strong enough as we have seen today with the negatives, they migrate to longer/stronger timeframes.

The 2 min chart is seeing that migration as well.

There is still the reversal process since we have very few reversal events, a "U" shaped base or "W" shaped base vs. a "V" shape reversal, fundamental news that the market had no way to discount such as Putin doing an about face with no warning is the kind of fundamental event that causes "V" shaped reversals, even though we did have a day of accumulation yesterday so it was not quite as tight as a "V".

What I'd expect to see from here and what we want to watch for is price starting to move more sideways than down, perhaps a "U" base as I've drawn in or a "W" base, remember right before a reversal there's typically a head fake move which you'll understand if you read my two articles dealing with head fake moves that are always linked on the members' site.

While a base or reversal process forms, we want to see 3C make continued upside leading positive divergences and for those to move to longer timeframes such as this 5 min chart, this is where we'll find the best entry at the lowest risk and with a head fake move, perhaps the very best entry.

MCP has plenty of charts showing the probabilities are very high that it makes a large (likely year or more) uptrend, so the probabilities of a reversal starting here are pretty high.

Also remember that bottom reversal s such as MCP seems to be starting are often much more narrow than the preceding and proceeding top reversals so it may happen much faster than we'd normally anticipate, you can look to the last top reversal on the chart above to get a feel, often the bottom reversals are about half the size.

I'd put MCP on your watchlist radar if you like the trade idea, we don't need to see upside moves yet, what is more constructive are lateral / sideways moves which allow the reversal process to build a sufficiently strong base to launch the next leg up.