Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Protection Bid

VXX is different than spot VIX and different than actual VIX futures (UVXY is just the 2x leveraged version of VXX). VXX is Short Term VIX Futures, but offers exposure to the first two or forward months whereas VIX futures are for the current month.

In any case, VIX, sometimes known as the fear index moves opposite of the market and is considered a flight to protection which is slightly different than a Flight to Safety asset.

This morning protection has been bid since the open in VIX futures...
 These are VIX futures which do not run continuously overnight like ES or Index futures, you can see since the open there has been a steady bid or positive divegrence in actual VIX futures, the 5 min chart saw very little damage from yesterday and today...

 VIX futures 5 min chart which I prefer for the stronger signals saw a dip as it should with the market up on a gap, but the 3C signal again did not confirm the gap down here and instead stayed in a leading positive position.

Since the VXX is the first 2 forward months it can act a bit different from the VIX futures even though it is a representation of VIX futures, just 2 months instead of 1.

 We are seeing sudden and very sharp divergences in VXX and UVXY as protection is being sought after, seemingly there's not as much faith in this move as price implies.

The 2 min chart is also seeing a fast developing positive divegrence, you can see the 2 min negative yesterday which is confirmation of the market averages' intraday positive divegrence.

I would not be entering a new VXX position although I will hold the UVXY trading position (long) that is in place, however if the divergence continues to build this quickly, I may consider some other possibilities (long VXX or UVXY).

This is one of the few assets that tends to see very sharp divergences as fear is the strongest emotion in the market thus it is reflected on the 3C charts like the 1 min above and shortly the 2 min should look similar.

The point is, protection is being sought after and that has been all morning in the actual VIX futures.

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