Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Putin's Disconnect and other Risk Events

I mentioned this video which was taken just hours ago at the Belbek Air force Base which was taken over Friday by Russian troops using shock grenades. In the video which was shot just hours ago, an unarmed column of Ukrainian soldiers marches toward the base blocked off by Russian military and APC light armor vehicles, shots are fired in the air to warn off the approaching, singing soldiers.

Note the last 10 seconds or so of the video in which heavy machine guns and even what appears to be a bazooka are trained on the Ukrainian soldiers...Exercise? The timing of Putin's statement is ironic given the US State Department says sanctions against Russia are due out in a matter of days, something Putin seemed very worried about, while leaving the subject of the troops that are already in the Ukraine alone completely, just dealing with troops in western Russia saying he has ordered them to return to their bases after exercises are finished Friday.

Don't forget, this Friday we also have the very market sensitive Non-Farm Payrolls.
In any case, given what Putin says and what the reality on the ground is (Ukrainian forces who are unarmed are driven back from their own air force base which was seized in this "Exercise") it seems Putin is hedging and seeing what the economic fallout may look like without pulling all the way back.

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