This morning the US woke up to what looked like a Putin with his tail between his legs, this is not very characteristic of the Russian leader (even when he's not- as in the Medved presidency), something about that didn't sit right with me, but it had no analysis value, just opinion. I figured Russia must be in VERY bad financial condition to have Putin go out and do an about face that was misleading at best as he talked of taking troops out of Western Russia after training ended Friday and sent them with orders to return to their barracks, but no mention was made of the troops inside the Ukraine.
How about the video of Russian military firing in the air at unarmed Ukrainian soldiers in the very air force base they seized using percussion grenades last Friday, this doesn't seem much like military exercises, at least not joint ones with Ukrainian consent.
Then later this morning Russian Warships entered the Black sea headed toward you know where. What Putin said and what he has done since then do not seem to mesh.
Now the latest provocation, according to Bloomberg, Russia just test fired an Inter-Continental Ballistic missile, not the scuds, but the long range nuclear warhead carrying type, from Bloomberg...
"Topol missile launched from firing range in Astrakhan region at 10:10pm Moscow time, news service reports, citing Russia’s Defense Ministry.
Launch carried out by Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces
Missile hit target in Kazakhstan: IFX"
From Reuters...
"Russia said it had successfully test-fired an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) on Tuesday, with tensions high over its seizure of control in the Crimea and its threat to send more forces to its neighbour Ukraine.
The Strategic Rocket Forces launched an RS-12M Topol missile from the southerly Astrakhan region near the Caspian Sea and the dummy warhead hit its target at a proving ground in Kazakhstan, the state-run news agency RIA cited Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Yegorov as saying"
If there's one truism on Wall Street it is, THE MARKET HATES UNCERTAINTY and Putin has gone from an odd certainty this morning to what would seem to be an escalation of tensions above and beyond anything we saw up until yesterday.
On top of all of that we have Non-Farm Payrolls coming out Friday at 8:30. According to Goldman Sachs, 2014 has seen the WORST start to Macro-Economic data since the start of 2008!!!
I have a doctor's appointment at 4 p.m., that is the latest I could get, it's for a check up of the area where I had skin cancer removed from my face last month so if I could put it off I would, unfortunately that is the latest appointment I can get.
So I want to leave you with some of the market signs and signals I'm seeing as of now...
USD/JPY
Volatility is picking up too, again as the market is fractal, changes in character lead to changes in trend whether over a 2 month period or a 2 hour period.
The 5 min chart is in leading negative position with a leading negative divegrence that I suspect grows worse as the 1 min should migrate over.
Some of the market averages are looking downright ugly AND I HAVE NO PROBLEM, IN FACT I'M GLAD I ENTERED THE IWM PUTS AND THE SRTY LONG POSITION, WITH VOLATILITY PICKING UP AND UNCERTAINTY CLIMBING, I THINK THESE WILL DO VERY WELL.
The sky-rocketting IWM...
The IWM 15 min is showing something very similar to the last move to the downside, the difference this time is the instability of the parabolic price move.
As for the VIX...
Earlier the VXX charts were positive at 1 and 2 mins and moving forward, now it has migrated to the 5 min.
Pro sentiment continues to deteriorate, there's something here they are not willing to buy/ chase or even take a quick trade in.
I'll have more for you when I return, but it seems like Putin just took us out of the frying pan this morning and threw us in to the fire this afternoon.
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