Friday, May 23, 2014

A.M. Update

Yesterday I posted Market is Losing It's Levers between HYG being flat on the open and in bad condition (15 min charts) and yesterday's positive movement in TLT which caused us to close the Ultrashort of TLT, TBT Closing TBT (long) For now  (TLT gapped up this morning) and VIX futures looking like they are now in demand on a sudden move from complacency to fear, the market as of yesterday was losing all of it's ramping levers even though the SPX psychological magnet of $19000 is nearby.

The only lever left as of yesterday was USD/JPY (more to say on manipulation of the pair later) and as sure as the sun will set, they tried very hard overnight...
 Around 2:30 a.m. EDT they ramped USD/JPY as hard as they could in the low volume overnight hours, just to fall short of the $102 target where they might have found additional momentum.

ES and the other Index futures however...
 Were not playing along, they failed to ramp with USD/JPY overnight.

As far as the Yen as it relates to the USD/JPY pair, it has a nice positive divergence which is not good for additional USD/JPY upside, although it's still on a 1 min chart. However...

The $USDX has a very negative divergence on the intraday 1 min which also is not good for the pair and...

The 5 min $USDX has a VERY clear negative leading divergence. This means, even the last lever of USD/JPY is losing its footing.

As for the 5 min Index future charts I was wondering about after they were routed earlier in the week, well they are right back to leading negative divergences- 5 min ES

5 min NQ

And 5 min TF.

We'll see what oop-ex combined with SPX $1900 nearby produces, one of the probabilities based on our concepts from earlier in the week was a head fake above the multi-month range, $1900 should do it if it happens which usually happens around 80% of the time before a major reversal (in this case with such a large top).

We'll see what opening indications look like, early on things looked a little parabolic and I never trust parabolic moves up or down.

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