"Now that we are getting more data in since we saw the first positive divegrence yesterday after the move lower, we are starting to get a few possible scenarios , which I like to try to put out there as it may help you with closing or opening certain positions, whether they be short term option trades or core positions entries/exits....If" this were a real bear flag, I would not expect to see positive divergences in to its formation, I'd expect to see distribution in to the correction to the upside, thus the case for a head fake move above the bear flag just got stronger."
and...
"the point here would be, the appearance of a bear flag alone suggests a high probability of a head fake move which would be to breakout to the upside first, however while they can manipulate short term trading action, they can't hold the manipulation long, there's a reason there's a bear flag forming and that's because of the strong sell off of the preceding couple of days, that trend almost always re-emrgers despite a head fake move, thus they are excellent to use as entries, in this case we'd short in to the head fake breakout above the bear flag."
I was talking about this area...
Also from the same post last Friday...Market Update and Some Probabilities continues...
"this is also introducing a slightly more complicated head fake pattern that is more effective....the "slightly more complicated head fake move", still puts the emphasis on the upside breakout of the bearish price pattern (Bear Flag)...The concept would be a Crazy Ivan Shakeout...A Crazy Ivan Shakeout will shakeout both sides of a price pattern...So the Crazy Ivan would look as I've drawn it above, a bear trap first on a downside break down which is what I suspect the 1-3 min charts recent weakness is depicting and then a breakout to the upside, which is why I think the larger 5 min positives haven't moved negative as this is the direction expected ultimately for the head fake move, allowing them to short price strength and more demand/volume before price naturally falls back down."
We didn't get the EXACT move imagined, but we did get all of the elements...
"while they can manipulate short term trading action, they can't hold the manipulation long, there's a reason there's a bear flag forming and that's because of the strong sell off of the preceding couple of days, that trend almost always re-emrgers despite a head fake move, thus they are excellent to use as entries, in this case we'd short in to the head fake breakout above the bear flag."
You've already seen the charts today and Leading Indicators in Definitive Change in Character, SPY Arb, USD/JPY, VIX Futures, TBT / TLT Follow Up and SPY Arbitrage and Market is Losing It's Levers
Beyond the charts there, in to the close we got...
As for the charts for the averages...
Most of the positives from last week only went out to 5 mins, as far as forecasting the upside move above the bear flag...
THE POINT IS, THE MOVES WE FORECASTED LAST WEEK WERE FOR 1 PURPOSE, THE BEAR FLAG WAS THERE FOR A PURPOSE, THE CRAZY IVAN SHAKEOUT WAS THERE FOR A PURPOSE AND THAT WAS UPSIDE MOMENTUM THAT COULD BE SOLD/SHORTED IN TO...
I THINK WE ARE AT THE LEDGE OF FULFILLING THAT PURPOSE.
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