MCP Update/ Possible Trade

MCP is a long time favorite (long) that looks to have been basing, I have some reason to believe GS has been buying MCP as well, but that's neither here nor there.

In any case, they report tonight after the bell.

In the last update for MCP, MCP Follow Up / Trade Set up

Here are the excerpts so you know what happened...

"Last week on April 22nd MCP broke out of a large triangle base on a strong price move of  at least +5.68% when I wrote about it, but something didn't look right and I exited the trading long position that day, here are the posts from last Tuesday and excerpts.

MCP (long) Position Follow Up... 1:33 p.m. April 22nd

"I'm not sure yet if today's move is the start of mark-up or a transition form the stage 1 base to stage 2 mark up, I'd like it to be, but so far we have a parabolic move (granted there's nice volume) and very little in the way of intraday confirmation so far, that can change in a hurry.

For now I am keeping the MCP long open, but if I don't see some improvement or I see deterioration, I may close out the trading position on today's move of +5.68% thus far...

A breakout of a triangle like this at its apex is a clear technical trading buy signal, what bothers me is there was no head fake/ stop run on a very obvious support level, first. Thus, if I feel this is going to end up being a false start, I'd likely try to book the gains, get out and wait for what would more likely than not, be a head fake move below support, that's where I'd want to re-enter, but lets give this a little time and see how things pan out."

Closing MCP Long Trading Position For Now 3:21 p.m. April 22nd"

Here's what we have now, this isn't quite the head fake move I had imagined, but if there's a leak in MCP's earnings, this would be exactly what I'd imagine...

 The longer term 60 min chart and the very strong upside probabilities as MCP looks to be in a clear stage 1 base any way.

Here's the triangle mentioned above from the last update, the breakout above it is what I didn't trust, there was no confirmation so we took our gains and exited MCP, I put out the set up of what I was looking for which included a head fake move below VERY obvious support, that's one of the things that bothered me about the breakout, no head fake move first.

Now we have that move below support, one of the things I was looking for to establish a new trading long position.

The 15 min chart shows distribution at the failed breakout and a positive divegrence on what I suspect is a head fake move.

 10 min chart with distribution at the head fake Failed breakout where we exited at a gain, and a nice positive on the move below the triangle.

 Intraday the 1 min chart sending MCP lower right before earnings and a positive divegrence in to that move.

And the 3 min chart.

The problem is, a reversal process of a head fake move would look like this, but I'm going to go ahead and take a chance and open a Half Size trading position in front of earnings (equity long), as there's just too much there that looks out of place or, lets just say, "manipulated".