If I did, it's because of the improvement I have seen since we have moved below the rectangle which was expected and the improvement on the two charts that I basically set as the line in the sand, the 10 and 15 min charts.
If I did enter a partial position, the reason for not entering a full position is there's still room for some more improvement and head fake moves tend to be extreme. There's also some 1-3 min charts (roughly) that should or could look much better.
In any case, here are a few charts that have me really considering whether or not it's time to start looking at some GDX/NUGT long (I feel VERY confident that the time will come in the very near future, I'm not too worried about a failure of the set up, it's more the exact timing).
This GDX 4 hour chart shows the entire suspected Inverse H&S base, they do tend to be symmetrical, which this one isn't because it's missing the second right shoulder, but that's a general rule of thumb, not a prerequisite.
The leading positive divergence on a 4 hour chart as the base pattern has matured is the exact reason
I say, "I feel VERY confident that the time will come in the very near future, I'm not too worried about a failure of the set up, it's more the exact timing".
This 60 min shows the positive at the head and the negative sending price lower to create the right shoulder and a positive divegrence in to the pullback creating the right shoulder.
The 30 min chart shows the same thing, the accumulation at the right shoulder and to the right, the range we have been watching. Note that overall, this is a leading positive divegrence.
It was the rectangle and our market psychology concepts (based on the predictability of technical traders) as well as the 10/15 min negatives in the range that suggested a head fake move below the range that would create supply (from stops and shorts) that would be accumulated and the intraday charts show in yesterday's post, that this rectangle range was constructed, it's not naturally occurring.
Look at the improvement on NUGT's 15 min chart from the negative sending price BELOW the range and the leading positive/accumulation of the head fake move, that's impressive, especially that fast.
While the leveraged ETFs tend to give signals earlier than the underlying asset, GDX's 10 min chart has improved, but it's not where we want to see it in relation to NUGT's 15 min.
This would be one of the reasons for either waiting a bit longer before entering or entering a partial position, leaving room to add to at lower prices.
This is NUGT's 5 min chart, negative at the head fake move above the range which creates downside momentum and that was used to break support, since then that supply has been aggressively accumulated.
As for intraday charts, GDX's 1 min looks great, right where it should, but...
The 2 min chart is in line, not leading.
I looked at DUSt hoping to get some more confirmation to help me decide...
This is the important 15 min chart, it is confirming NUGT/GDX by putting in a leading negative divergence.
The 10 min chart is confirming as well.
Truth be told, although we have good confirmation, I do think another day may make these signals irresistible.
And the 5 min also confirming DUST's negative leading, like NUGT's positive leading.
I think I'll try to give it a little more time, if I enter today, obviously it will be toward the close, otherwise I'll wait until tomorrow and see what we have.
I think if you had enough room for a wide stop and patience, NUGT would see some incredible upside no matter what, right now though for me, it's a matter of not wanting open market risk or opportunity cost if this asset is not absolutely ready to go.
It would be a shame to see all of our patience we've displayed count for nothing.
No comments:
Post a Comment