Futures Update

We basically have the average following the correlation with the carry trade, USD/JPY. The intraday Yen is still moving higher, but the 5 min is still building a negative divegrence. The intraday $USDX is negative and threatening to come down intraday, the 5 min chart is in line.

Basically it looks like we may be forming a larger "W" base in the USD/JPY which would be one of the scenarios we talked about as far as the market averages creating a stronger base and wider footprint as they haven't really developed too much considering the time they've had.

The only thing this really matters for is whether or not we decide to take some short duration "hitch-hiking" long trades, but the ultimate goal is to short in to price strength

The charts...

 ES 1 min intraday, the 5 min index futures are also negative.

NQ intraday, again the 5 min chart is also leading negative.

And R2K Futures/TF intraday, and the 5 min is negative.

As you can see the 1 min USD/JPY is coming down, but in to a positive divergence, even though only intraday.

It has been the 5 min USD/JPY that has been interesting.

And this is the 5 min $USD/JPY, there's a positive divegrence at yesterday's low and I suspect another coming at what would probably be a slightly lower low, forming a "W" base. At this point in the price pattern, the left side of the "W", the middle / top of the "W" would be in place and we'd be coming down now to form the second bottom of the "W", of course unlike what Technical Analysis teaches (support and resistance), the second low is often a bit lower than the first, essentially the head fake move as traders expect support to hold, much like the double bottom or double top concept.

After a mild morning of -500/+750 ranges in the NYSE TICK, you can see clearly intraday breadth has deteriorated.

This is just all the more reason to be patient and wait for the set up that jumps off the charts, the ones we can't ignore rather than get caught in this chop that has dominated since the 22/24th of April.

I'll have more for you shortly after I see some of the averages and single currency futures. The Yen 15 min negative continues to be the chart that says that the USD/JPY has a good probability of taking out the psychologically important $102 area.