A.M. Update

Yesterday in the Keep an eye on USD/JPY $102 post I wrote the following about the USD/JPY and the overall market (this was late in the trading day),

"If it (USD/JPY) breaks through, we'll have a dead cat bounce look to the market, if not, then we'll see if it continues to try to build out its base. There are some signs in ES that there's some distribution, likely because traders figure $102 will hold as resistance at least 1 more time."

As you might know, here's what happened...

 Overnight around 10 pm the USD/JPY failed to reach $102 with a top just below.

This is the 1 min USD/JPY just before the open with a small positive divegrence.

And this is the 5 min chart working out that larger base that seemed to be the second option.

The 5 min Yen chart still has a negative divegrence and if it comes down, the USD/JPY moves up, but for now. where it is, it gives the market "the opportunity" to build a base that is a bit more solid than what we ended with yesterday. This does not mean the market will take the opportunity and this is what we'll be watching for in early trade.

The $USDX is threatening a positive divegrence which could lift the USD/JPY and the market, again though as long as it doesn't move too far from here, it allows the market "the Opportunity" to build a larger base than what's there now.

ES saw some disappointment this morning as the ECB left rates unchanged, but that's about the extent of the action until we see opening indications and how the USD/JPY continues to act.

There's still a 15 min leading negative divegrence in the Yen that suggests $102 will be broken and drag index futures and the market higher, we're pretty close so even small moves in the USD/JPY are going to have a dramatic effect on the market if $102 is broken.

So far in VERY early trade, it looks like there's not much confirmation of the open, BUT, THE MARKET DID PICK UP WHERE 3C LEFT OFF YESTERDAY, thus far....