TLT, 30 year Treasury Futures & TBT Update

OK, as mentioned, the in the last post, I brought TBT long in the trading portfolio up to a full size position. Normally I'd consider this a flight out of safety if TLT is looking to come down, but there are other considerations like the F_E_D's continuing tapering of their bond buying program and China hasn't exactly been the US debt eating monster it use to be. There could be all kinds of reasons, I'm just following the signals.

If you want to compare TLT charts and 30 year T Futures to the last update, here's the link, Treasuries Update & TLT / TBT Trade Update

I believe I also looked at 10 year benchmark and 5 year Treasury futures, there was a little difference, the 30/60 min charts in the 10 and 5 year were not as bad as they were in the 30 year which is fine because the trade I am interested in is closer to the 30 year. As I looked today (quickly) at the 10 and 5 year futures, I found that to still be the case.

The charts... 30 year Treasury Futures...

 5 min 30 year T's, a leading negative divegrence after being in line , the pop up was sold in to pretty hard today, but this is just near term character, it is not what makes me consider the trade, but it does make me consider the trade being ready.

The 15 min continues to lead with a negative divegrence.

 This is where the trade gets more serious, a 30 min chart of 30 year T futures, also leading negative and today's pop up even has a bit of a head fake look to it as it crossed above local resistance on some volume and failed.

 The 60 min chart is really the probabilities so this looks like a decent pullback is coming, I'm looking for the $102 area in TLT to consider a long position I have long been interested in so this may be the move that gets us there, making the inverse TBT with 2x leverage, a decent vehicle to go along for the ride to set up the larger trade (again, one bridge at a time).

TLT Charts...

 This is a 2 hour TLT chart, note the positive divegrence (white) and the in line status shortly after, then a leading negative, not huge, but fast and sharp, looks like a good pullback.

The 60 min chart gives us good confirmation of what the 2 hour chart shows us.

Here I knew TLT wasn't quite ready to turn and there's be some chop in the area before a turn to the downside, that's why I left room to add to the TBT long position, but this 30  min is looking more acute in the negative divergence.

 This is the 15 min, note the range in yellow and the distribution in the range, ranges are very useful for finding underlying action, although by looking at price only, you'd never know.

The 10 min chart in the same range

And of course today's intraday chart on what looked to be a head fake move, it was distributed immediately.

This is the 3 min TLT, it too looks like timing is just about right for a move lower.

I suspect there are some market correlation algos running so any action in the market may see some inverse TLT movement or TBT moving with it, although I'm not at all convinced that's the reason behind some of these longer term signals.

TBT, the actual long position

 The 3 min chart in TBT is leading positive, confirming the 3 min TLT chart which is good to see from a timing perspective.

The 10 min chart also confirms as many do, I just didn't want to overwhelm with charts all showing confirmation.

And as to the possible duration of TBT, this 60 min chart gives TBT plenty of upside profit potential so I would have looked for a 2x leveraged position as options for me is too much leverage and not needed and TLT alone (short) wouldn't be quite enough.