Futures

There are some accelerating development in Index futures. Early in the week when I expected not only Russell 2000 outperformance which has been probably the most stellar call for "The Week Ahead" guidance from Friday (the early Monday price action was correct as well-all based on the charts from Friday), but specifically for it to gain more ground than it has due to the fact it had not or barely has hit our minimum upside target for the averages which was posted well over a week ago now. Earlier in the week, the 3C charts of the Index futures really were not leaning strongly one way or the other, that is starting to change and especially in the Russell 2000 futures as they have given the market the best opportunity this week to sell in to strength which is kind of one of our macro concepts,  The market needs price gains and asset demand to sell in to because of their size and the size of their positions. So TF seems to be leading the shift in character that is now evident on the Index futures charts, to the negative.
I've posted several of these charts and if I had the time I'd post more, however the key take-aways so far are this (in addition to the 3C charts of the averages seeing deterioration, Leading Indicators, HYG distribution, etc), the move off the mid-Janauary base is seeing a turn towards the negative which is quite clear.

As for the F_O_M_C, we had a very strong 2 year note auction today, this implies bond traders are NOT expecting a rate hike today, or else the short 2 year maturity wouldn't have had such a strong auction.

I even see this on the 2 year's intraday futures chart...

 2 year Treasury futures 1 min chart with a positive divegrence since yesterday, makes sense considering today's strong 2 year auction, bond traders are not expecting an interest rate hike.

As for a knee jerk reaction up, the SPX and NDX could still use it, they haven't had anything to sell in to.

 While I don't see anything intraday on USD/JPY or $USD, I do see this negative in the Yen, suggesting a lower yen, higher USD/JPY.

In addition...

I see this negative 1 min Euro, suggesting weaker Euro=stronger $USD=stronger USD/JPY= market ramp as a knee jerk reaction.

Note how ES 5 min chart is close to in line,

 The TF/Russell 2000 5 min chart looks a lot worse.

The 7 min Es chart shows Friday's weakness i the charts, but note ES hasn't moved higher since,  there's been no opportunity to sell in to higher prices, a knee jerk reaction could help with that, but...

Where there has been an opportunity on the 7 min R2K futures, you can see Friday had the same action, but a much more negative 3C chart as R2K did give them the chance to sell in to higher prices.

And this is the larger picture on an ES 30 min chart.

We'll know soon enough, but expecting a knee jerk higher that will be sold in to.