F_E_D Statement Overall Hawkish

This is why the market is reacting the way it is right now, however, despite some of the charts of Index futures, especially Russell 2000 and the market averages making pretty clear the changes in character to the negative, I think it's probably a little dangerous to assume the market is going to react the same way throughout the rest of the day, however I do think our bigger picture of recent changes is probably very  valid (turning noticeably more negative).

It's time to address the TLT charts that have been bothering me, it requires that I post some of the F_O_M_C statement and research a little bit more as well as check the bond market where the action is post F_O_M_C and see if anything has changed.

However, the gist of what I'm going to present (of course adjusting for any new information since the F_O_M_C in the charts) is that the market or more specifically the talking heads, may have this VERY wrong, the building consensus that rate hikes are going to be pushed out further in to 2015 or not at all, I believe is wrong and I believe there's proof on the charts that smart money knows that and that Rate Hikes are closer than many seem to be leaning. This may be one of the biggest opportunities we have sen in the market during our lifetimes, perhaps several generations.

I also think this (as I will show) adds validity to my theory you may remember based on recent statements by Jim Bullard of the F_E_D last week vs. almost the exact same statement given in a Bloomberg radio interview last April (I believe 4/1/2014), being EXACTLY the same. 

In other words, my theory that the F_E_D/ F_O_M_C has already set a plan in motion and despite what has said, is moving toward that, data dependency be damned, it has even more credibility now.

Why does this matter?

Well raising rates is probably not going to be good for the economy (the market less so ) and I don't care what the F_O_M_C statement just said, if you have been paying attention to macro data or if you have not, just look at the Bloomberg Macro Economic Data Surprise Index (negative for 2015),  this economy is in my opinion not strong enough to weather a rate hike so the F_E_D probably has a pretty dire scenario for which they need to raise rates. I've believed this since shortly after QE3 was launched and the F_E_D started changing yardsticks to make the set up to a rate hikes more easily obtainable such as changing from qualitative guidance to quantitative guidance which we JUST saw in the F_O_M_C statement as I warned 2 years ago or so when they changed it and I said this will allow them to essentially make it up as they go along despite what the facts on the ground say because they need to reach a certain reality which is backing out of accommodative policy which is much more difficult to do than to enter it.

Then there's the additional fact that about 1/3rd of floor traders have never seen a rate hike in their professional careers. Making this worse, they (and retail even more so) have a huge list of cognitive biases that may take a good part of the less experienced traders by storm.

I've been saying for over a month that something has changed in TLT (longer term bonds) and it has been worrying (if that's the right word), we're going to get to that now as I think this may be some of the most important data moving forward for 2015 and especially near term, as near term as the next F_O_M_C meeting.