AAPL Update

Right now, this is the reality of AAPL.

As of Monday when we looked at the charts pre-earnings, the highest probability assigned despite whatever earnings may be was a head fake move above the range...

 The daily AAPL chart, the range and today's gap up/Hanging Man (bearish) candlestick on heavy volume. the first part of our set-up scenario has taken place.

The longer term strategic view of AAPL shows character consistent with longer term  distribution . Remember, it's not about what you did, it's about the perception of what you'll do next and whether this is as good as it gets or there may be something more.

I could make arguments based on the strong dollar, the even stronger dollar based on the probability of a F_E_D rate hike and AAPL's overseas profits suffering as a result just like so many companies have already reported, but I'll stick to the charts.

 Even on the fastest 1 min intraday chart, there's still no upside confirmation for today's gap.

While I don't expect smart money to accumulate by chasing prices higher, I do want to watch to see if there's clear evidence they are distributing even heavier, evidence of their perception which I'd want to be on the same side of.

So far this is where our 5 min chart is, it's a decent starting point. If we see this continue to deteriorate, we'll have a pretty solid idea of whether this move is one that can hold or it's being sold.

As mentioned earlier, this is a process, usually not an event, especially not in a company this big, so I'd think we have time and don't need to over-react, but wait for the objective data to confirm suspicions.

I do have to say though that today's hanging man with no confirmation and heavy volume looks a lot like churning.