Wednesday, January 28, 2015

A.M. Update

As posted in last night's Daily Wrap, the market internals looked quite oversold on a 1-day basis after yesterday's dip with a pretty sharp move down in the NASDAQ 100, however as everyone knows, AAPL posted a historic beat after hours last night. I suspect between the two (oversold market/AAPL beat), futures moved higher, but there's a third reason, which I believe is the gas in the tank for the bounce hasn't been used up yet, We've held that position since last week and this week haven't had much of an opportunity to rectify that situation yet except in the Russell 2000.

However, looking at some of the damage from yesterday and some of the repair from overnight, primarily in NASDAQ futures, since the R2K was the only average to have any gains at all to sell in to this week, it has a different and interesting look on the 5 min Index futures charts...
 NQ 5 min chart with some damage, but a bit closer to in line vs...

The Russell 2000 futures, clearly worse looking chart by far as there "were" gains this week to sell in to.

I'm not sure any of that will matter after the F_O_M_C today which is the wild card. Expectations are getting sloppy and a bit scattered given the dollar's strength vs most major currencies, effecting companies' guidance / outlook for the top and bottom line and of course the inflation/deflation scenario, even though the F_E_D has said it considers the move lower in oil to be a transitory event and doesn't seem concerned in its inflation scenario.

So it will be an interesting day as to any new language and whether the old language, "Considerable time" remains.

The Futures have a slightly positive look to them intraday before the open.


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