Thursday, April 30, 2015

Market Builds a Wider Base-Still Holding UVXY (Long)

As forecasted this morning with specific emphasis in the last post, Market Update the market has built a slightly stronger base structure from which to bounce. This would normally make me a little more probable to take the gains from yesterday's Adding a Partial UVXY (VXX) long Short Term VIX Futures off the table and had I used options (calls), I likely would. 

However as you saw in multiple timeframes in the last post, Market Update, probabilities are strongly with VXX / UVXY long and I'm not keen on maybe missing them because I was trying to trim the fat a bit too closely rather than keeping my eye on the ball. I do not disparage anyone from taking some decent 1-day gains in a position that you should be able to easily re-enter at a better price, it's just not for me at this moment in the market.

The anticipated wider "W" base from this morning's "V" base is largely in place and as suspected, at least one of the major averages did put on another stop run, which makes for an excellent entry if you were inclined to try to play this bounce long. The 3C signals also improved on the pullback to form a wider intraday base. However, lets not get carried away, this is still an intraday base.

 DIA almost at this morning's lows and a wider base area with a stronger leading 3 min positive divergence.

IWM with the first 5 min leading positive divergence, still small and not much of a concern, but definitive intraday improvement.

SPY has pulled back almost perfectly to form a wider "W" intraday base with improvement on the 3 min 3C chart

And 3 min QQQ pulled the head fake move (stop-run) I suggested in the last update, that was a likely probability. Note the increased volume as stops are hit and accumulated on the cheap with a leading 3 min 3C chart.

This is great from my perspective, it makes trade set-ups and entries much easier.

Remember the probabilities that were clearly laid out in the last post , if not the entire year and then some.

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