Thursday, April 30, 2015

Early Update

Looking at the market on the open, it does not look very promising for a bounce, but the price is deceiving.

I wouldn't mind so much being wrong in this case and let those core short positions tear loose, however I think it's way too early to assume the charts are wrong.

In fact, Here are a few things to be looking for...
 Yesterday the intraday breadth wasn't at an oversold level like the sectors, However this morning as you can see the trend in the NYSE TICK is taking care of that with a low of nearly-1500 which is an extreme.

We're looking for an intraday flameout
 The daily SPY chart is right in the area of 50 day support

That means watch those intraday charts for a bullish hammer or some other bullish candlestick on increased volume, preferably higher than anything around it.

 The Russell 2000 features intraday one minute chart still has the same positive divergence intact.

 As does the NASDAQ 100 futures

Looking at a very tight 10 minute ES chart, Note the positive divergence also. We have to consider this within the reality of multiple time frame analysis so this is a short term bullish signal, but when put into context...

This is the wider view of the same 10 minutes ES chart it is overall leading negative divergence however it is not unusual to have countertrend balances as it looks like we've already transitioned from the head fake move or chimney to the beginning of stage 4

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