Thursday, April 30, 2015

A.M. Update

Good Morning,

Yesterday's Pre-F_O_M_C positive divergences in intraday timeframes have continued to build overnight suggesting TODAY, we see a bounce attempt most likely with the 1 Index Future that has been lagging ES and NQ in turning negative on the 7, 10 and 15 min charts and  that's Russell 2000 futures or the IWM, so yesterday's worst performer should end up being today's best, but again this doesn't look to be anything other than a short term "noise" move.

As for futures...
 NASDAQ 100 Futures 1 min chart overnight and this morning positive, again it is a very short term timeframe, but should hold a bounce today.

 Russell 2000 futures / IWM also positive on the 1 min chart.

I said yesterday I thought the Russell would lead as it should in any risk on move... jumping to the 5 min charts which are a much more serious timeframe for near term trade...

NQ remains nearly perfectly in line with price, not positive.

ES does as well, although the longer 7, 10 and 15 min  charts are still damaged like yesterday.

However the "tell" is the 5 min Russell 2000 futures, as I said yesterday, it's showing better relative performance on the 3C charts as it is positive on this 5 min timeframe as well.

While most Leading Indicators are falling apart, yields are roughly (as of the close) still in the area of the averages as a short term leading indicator so that may provide some additional support. A ew other Leading Indicators short term reverted down yesterday from leading, but leave them in line short term as well, this from their "mildly supportive position of the last few days".

As of last night we also had a 1-day short term oversold condition in market breadth by way of sector performance, 8 of 9 S&P sectors red and only 53 of 238 Morningstar groups in the green.

For these reasons, I believe we'll see a bounce/bounce attempt on a short term basis meaning a day or so, which works well to get more positions out. Nothing has changed on the "Big picture end".



No comments: