Market Bounce Update

Here are the charts of the averages, now leading positive out to 10 mins with an extreme burst of accumulation over the last 6 hours or so (in to yesterday's lows)...

However as impressive as these may look, you have to keep in mind the risk levels right now, not only the Non-Farm Payrolls, F_E_D and Greece, but the market itself. I threw in a few charts to remind you.

 SPY 1 min in line until yesterday afternoon.

 SPY five minute

 And now some impressive 10 minute leading divergences. There still isn't much of a base, It is be shaped as you see so that diminishes its ability to support higher or sustained prices.

 As a reminder, theSPY 30 minute which I have color-coded in terms of bad, worse, and don't ignore this.

 IWM one minute trend view with a small W base

 The same I WM one minute chart showing yesterday's afternoon accumulation and this morning.

 IWM 3 minute from in-line to positive acting as a timing indication.

 I WM 10 minutes leading positive.

 Again a reminder, this is the IWM 15 minute chart leading negative. The 15 minute chart is not only much stronger than the 10 minute chart but the size of the distribution zone is significantly larger than the 10 minute positive above.

 QQQ one minute showing that in-line behavior until yesterday afternoon.

 QQQ five-minute positive which is more than enough to support a decent bounce.

And the very sharp and if fast developing 10 minute leading divergence in QQQ.


TICK data a slight intraday pullback or consolidation. I'll be taking a look around to see if there's anything that is worth the risk Beyond the positions that are already open.

On the currency side, so far EUR/USD has lost ground as forecast...

 EUR/USD

Which has sent the $USD higher

Perhaps we do get that counter trend bounce in the $USD before it makes another new lower low.

As a result, USD/JPY has lifted and is near term supportive.

When evaluating risk, remember the Non-Farm Payrolls are tomorrow morning. I'd think these divergences will over-rule the print until they have run their course, but if we get another major surprise like last month... who knows.