Wednesday, June 24, 2015

It's Equally As Hard Not to Like the IWM Short Here As Well

Again in a few charts...

Lets not forget our projection of what all of this was about and where we have come since (I've posted multiple posts chronicling the timeline since the lows of Monday June 15th). The second tag of the SPX's 150 sma was made, giving traders the illusion of stable support so any move to the upside had some credibility. Remember Fear was at an extreme on Monday the 15th, considering the $4.1 billion in net selling last week led by institutional money, they obviously couldn't sell in to weakness unless they wanted to trigger supply/demand dynamics which would send the market much lower (worse exits) on that kind of money exiting the market, they needed to sell in to price strength and they needed a bounce people would believe to do that. That's done, I'm still expecting the 150-day to be sliced through on the next pivot to the downside, that's where we are near term as I believe we are at that pivot.

 The IWM charts have fallen apart very fast and they were the first to fall apart in Index Futures (Russell 2000 futures).

This 5 min chart shows the recent ROC to the downside in the leading negative divergence as part of a larger cycle from March, now at new leading negative lows.

However a closer look at the same chart shows the majority of the damage was done last week in to this week, thus it's very hard not to like the Russell 2000 short here.

The only thing I see very short term on this 60 min chart is a sharp decline here, would look strange, while the SPX has more of a reversal process in place, the IWM would have a very tight "V" shape, nothing a little intraday bounce wouldn't help out.

Looking at the intraday 1 min chart, it has a small relative positive divergence so I suspect a bounce from this morning'e early weakness,  that would help with the chart above this one.

Since capturing these charts, the SPY, DIA and QQQ have bounced a bit, the IWM has made more lateral movement, so it may get a bounce.

Again, Greek news today especially could cause some volatility and choppy trade, this is why I lean toward less leveraged vehicles at the moment which are easier to ride out that chop.

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