Wednesday, June 24, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning.

I probably don't need to tell you any of this as most seem to be following, but the reason the longer 15, 30 and 60 min EUR/USD charts don't look good apparently wasn't over a short term dust up and settlement this week, but the FX market looking at the reality of the big picture and coming away with a bleak conclusion which has been put out by the Greek government overnight, the reforms demanded by the IMF, which did not accept the current bailout terms extension, was rejected out of hand by Greece, one Syriza member saying receiving the new demands which are largely centered on pension cuts and VAT hikes more so than corp. tax hikes, "Was like touching fire".

So this morning as Tsipras has made it clear that the Troika has rejected Greek proposals in an almost defeated tone, we are back to square 1 with everyone back behind their uncrossable red lines as the details were to be worked out today, instead it's back to the blackboard . June 30th is coming up pretty fast to be back at the blackboard.

As for the market, 
 The ES 5 min chart (as well as the other Index Futures) has just gotten a lot worse overnight, especially since the European open. These are the charts I was talking about yesterday that should sewing around pretty quickly and they have.

 This is the 10 min NASDAQ futures to illustrate the concept of a reversal process, the green arrow being 3C in line with declining price, the white arrow being the bounce off last Monday's lows and the yellow arrows being the reversal process, it's a bit easier to see than to just hear about.

Here's the same chart with only the 3C divergence, as we showed all last week and confirmed with BAC's hard numbers last night, the entire move last week was used to sell in to or short in to and that's visible from the 3C divergence.

So now we hunt...

No comments: