Wednesday, June 24, 2015

It's Hard Not to Like the SPY Short Here

Obviously with Greek PM, Tsipras meeting with the heads of the Troika today and the Finance Ministers later today, there's a lot of room for rumors, falsehoods, denials, etc. However from a pure chart standpoint, it's very difficult not to like the SPY here. I prefer some kind of an equity of leveraged ETF short at the moment as we seems to be at the end phase of the reversal process and there's always room for more volatility, but a well constructed options position could give the time needed to ride out any rough waters that may come from the Greek drama, also in its end game.

3 simple charts...
 The 2 min SPY chart, note the divergence in the area of the last bounce since last Monday. Stops could be put above the gap fill or above recent highs on longer term SPY shorts.

 A closer look at the same chart, the gap fill we were looking for is pretty much all there (yellow line) and the 3C charts since haven't been pretty.

This is the 10 min chart, the 3C trajectory has been distribution and down. The market pops up here and there every once in a while in the trend and promptly is smacked down, but this time the pop is a bit bigger than usual as is the divergence. I'd fully expect price to revert back down to 3C's reality lower.

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