Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Intraday bounce looking more likely

I suspect that this is probably something that was already in the works, falling under the concept, "Once Wall St. sets up a cycle, they rarely abandon it", even intraday bounces.

The TICK is starting to improve intraday, apparent here...
 Intraday NYSE TICK

And on our custom TICK (cumulative) indicator
 TICK Custom indicator vs SPY.

Also you can see the ROC of price is starting to flatten out either by eye-balling it or applying ROC to price such as I did here. Those are just the obvious price based indications, I'm sure there are many more you could use, but for the most part price action alone will tell you enough.

As for the 3C charts, I don't think there's going to be a sharp intraday bounce, it would likely take a bit more time. I want to reiterate, there's strong downside confirmation so intraday noise which is what I'd call this no matter what it looks like as the underlying 3C charts are so bad, is actually helpful in assets like VXX that aren't going to see serious accumulation in to higher prices, thus a market intraday bounce would send prices lower and allow the accumulation of VXX and likely give me that chart that I'll know when I see it.

 SPY 2 min from negative to in line to a slight positive, but not quite a large enough lateral base for a decent bounce right now.

SPY 5 min trumps the 1 min chart by multiples and the divergence here is awesome, thus I have no concern about this being anything other than an intraday bounce or the "Jiggles", which is normal.

Did you know that on average, there are just as many up days as down days in a bear market? Those are the jiggles (the up days), the down days are just much more serious.

Even at the fastest intraday chart the IWM is not showing much at all even for an intraday bounce, lots of damage done here today.

And the 10 min chart has seen an amazing leading negative divgerence on the whole, but look at all that downside 3C movement today alone.

The QQQ, bounce or not, are also locked in to a downside reversal, looking horrible here.

As far as confirmation beyond the averages, the 1 min VXX chart has an intraday negative divgerence so there's confirmation. It's amazing how all of these different market makers, FX, bond/credit traders all know the same thing at the same time. Perhaps that's why the most useful function of a Bloomberg terminal as we saw several months ago when they all went down was not actual quotes or analysis, but the chat feature among the pros that use them, just something to think about.




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