Perhaps $USD Doesn't Pullback Intraday

This is about more than just the USO possible trade set up just posted, USO Position Update and Possible Trade Set-up, although I've already set my alerts and haven't ruled it out.

I think this particular, seemingly minor movement in the EUR/USD is a bit more important than what the actual charts and EUR/USD movement may first suggest. The perception is what is really at stake here and how traders go in to the weekend.

I believe that the small $USD pullback and Euro bounce which looked like this...

 Euro down overnight as forecast yesterday based on the divergence in $USDX and Euro futures, then an early morning bounce at the white trend line, this seems to be starting to fail.

As for the other half of the FX pair (EUR/USD), the $USD...

As forecast yesterday based on the divergences the $USDX saw an overnight bounce and a small pullback , again at the white trend line, the same time as the Euro bounce and if you look to the far right, it appears that this pullback may be abruptly ending as 3C starts to hit a new leading high.

As for the slightly bigger picture, the 3 min Euro futures, which was part of the overall EUR/USD analysis from yesterday, EUR/USD & Market Sentiment-Flipping the Boat...

Looks pretty darn bad for the Euro near term. The $USD was reflecting the F_O_M_C earlier in the week and as it hit the weekly lows, but now it's back to the other market concern, the more immediate one which is Greece.

This is what I suspect happened at both the morning correction (USD down/EUR up) and why it seems to be ending suddenly.

You may recall the ECB's ELA (Emergency Lending Assistance Facility) and the question of whether the ECB would grant the Greek financial sector another loan as deposit outflows are heavy at $5 bn over the last 7-days and $3bn Euros this week as of last night.

The ECB granted an extension on Wednesday of $1.1 bn euros to the Greek Financial sector and just one day later (yesterday), the Greek Central Bank requested ANOTHER loan from the ELA, the ECB granted it this morning in an unscheduled meeting, but less than what was sought, but another $1.8 bn,

I suspect the granting of the additional funds today by the ECB was what caused the minor $USD pullback and EUR bounce as it would seem that Greek banks would indeed be able to open Monday, However Reuters is reporting that Friday alone (today), there was another -$1.2 bn Euro outflow from Greek banks, effectively using up the entire ELA lending granted, thus putting Greece back in the spotlight as far as whether banks open Monday and for how long. While most retail traders probably won't grasp this, smart money certainly will and it will likely influence how they go in to the weekend. You already know my opinion about this week's price action which was summarized in last night's Daily Wrap, but now the temporary reprieve Greece seemed to get as they also got another emergency EuroGroup meeting scheduled for Monday, seems to be spent.

This could and should change the face of how traders/pros go in to the weekend, which makes VXX (protection) much more interesting as well as the market after the op-ex pin, I'd guess around 2 p.m.

In short, the extra cash the ECB granted above and beyond Wednesday's decision, is all but gone.