I apologize, I keep trying to get this VXX update out and I keep seeing things that are more immediate in nature, and in this case helpful for the VXX position. Now don't go panicking or anything like that, the price action from 2 p.m. onward to the close is pretty much irrelevant as it is often a false signal while the 3C charts the last 2 hours of an op-ex Friday tend to give us some of the best data of the week and it may not agree (usually doesn't) with price action in to the close. Which means I trust the 3C charts a lot more as to what Monday's open will look like than I do any price action from 2 to close on Friday, I consider it noise, most often deceptive.
This may not even be a bounce of any significance, but I want to show you as it actually would be helpful as you'll see in the VXX post for that position's reversal process.
You recall earlier I posted a possible divergence building that could either go to the noise side, or perhaps an intraday bounce, nothing more.
Here's what I have.
This is an intraday 1min chart of QQQ, very minor, but there's a flat intraday reversal-like pattern and a small positive divergence here.
Note the negative divergence in to the close yesterday, remember the concept of the divergence picking up where it left off at the cash close/cash open and look at QQQ's a.m. price action, continuing with the closing negative divergence, just as a conceptual head's up.
This is the QQQ 3 min intraday chart, very close (zoomed in), note the flat price range and the relative positive divergence 9the weakest form of divergence). Also note the concept of picking up where we left off with yesterday's closing divergence.
The SPY 1 min intraday (zoomed in) has a positive divergence as ES was showing us first earlier and a flattish range.
The SPY 2 min is leading negative so there has been no migration to this chart, this any bounce in the area is a weak one, it hasn't even migrated to the 2 min chart.
As for the SPY 2 min trend, it's definitely negative.
Here's the same chart with no drawings, it's pretty clear yesterday's move saw selling.
As for the intraday TICK, it has broken the downtrend channel, not aggressively, but a change if character and changes in character lead to ...?
Our custom TICK indicator has been deteriorating since yesterday, however...
Taking a VERY close intraday look, note the slight positive internals change to the upside.
This doesn't look like much of anything I;d be concerned about, but intraday it may be very helpful to positions like VXX long. It's not something I personally would trade, but that's me.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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