Quick Market Update

Last night I recapped the week for you , what we expected and why and what I expect moving forward with links to all of the posts and excerpts, it's a decent run down of the week, but I think in retrospect it will also be a decent run down of our concepts, how and why. Here's the post, Daily Wrap.

The market behavior today looks like the expectations moving our way, I'm a bit surprised with quad witching, but I think the sentiment and perception that was recapped in the last post, Perhaps $USD Doesn't Pullback Intraday, explains a lot of that. It's looking like a VERY unsure Monday and that's essentially the reason for this week's/yesterday's move, someone was gaming the market as we expected Monday morning when support was made very obvious, so they could unload or short, etc.

I have alert after alert going off as the averages are tripping downside price alerts I set. Right now considering we should still be in the op-ex pin, I think it's a bit uglier behavior than we should be seeing until after 2 pm.

A quick look...

 ES 1 min is overall leading negative in a big way since yesterday's sharp leading divergence. There's a small possible positive intraday divergence to the far right, but I'm not putting a lot of faith in that as a signal as it could just as easily just be a transient movement, it's not screaming or jumping off the chart, but for the moment while we're in the area, I'd keep an eye on the NYSE TICK Index.

Thus far it has trended lower, no real extreme readings of any kind, not yet. Watch for a break above the channel, then there "may" be something to that small divergence.

TF/R2K futures are not showing the same, thus I don't put as much faith in it as there's not multiple asset confirmation and overall, this is an ugly chart that does jump off the screen.

As for the move this week, looking at a larger 10 min timeframe...

 NQ/NDX futures show a deep leading negative divergence at yesterday's move, which is what we saw intraday as well yesterday. Otherwise, other than a couple of divergences on the chart, 3C does a great job of showing in line or confirmation at the price trend, thus these divergences just stick out that much more relative to the inline/confirmation areas.

Here's the same chart without any of my scribble so you can maybe see it more clearly.

The same NQ chart as above.

I'm going to update VXX next and then I'm going to go through all of the Futures we track typically in every timeframe and start putting together the expectations for the week ahead, although I think the tone of last night's post, the Daily Wrap, pretty much makes my expectations pretty well known.