The Week Ahead

Short term charts are definitely mixed, but this is more or less short term noise and in the case of a trade like VXX, that noise can be used to enter a nice long position, but if you don't need to thread the needle, I'd be fine with taking them here.

I think the short term chart craziness reflects knee jerk possibilities over Greek news. We've all been wisely conditioned not to expect much from Greece, but this is now a country with the clock ticking down. I can't figure out why the ECB keeps extending them just enough Emergency liquidity to just about even out the outflows each day and I can't figure out why after the horrible failure of a EuroGroup meeting yesterday, Tsipras would go to such trouble as to get an emergency meeting scheduled for Monday and why the Troika who clearly thinks or says Greece is not serious, would give them the chance. So the very near term looks a bit cloudy, although I doubt smart money is carrying much of anything in to the weekend which is largely what I think this week was all about, not just the close today.

As suspected on Monday, the second tag of support at the 150-day moving average set up the bounce of the level we expected Monday, all indicators show that risk was dumped in the middle of the week (yellow arrow),  that seems to have been one of the main reasons for the move other than a sentiment extreme which was bearish at the start of the week, which makes it even easier to flip the script and have demand to sell in to on a typical strong counter trend move. Remember, this week=COUNTER TRNED move.

As far as Leading Indicators, they are all still negative, pro sentiment, 

 Our first pro sentiment indicator...

And our confirmation secondary- neither bought the move this week, in fact the opposite.

HYG was used as a lever because the market needed it, no strength on its own. As for today...

 HYG has been nearly perfectly in line leading the market as a short term manipulation lever as seen last night, today it weakened from that position intraday.

As for the 3C charts, they never offered much HYG support at all, they may need to manipulate the market higher to exit positions, but they aren't risking much to do it.

 1 min intraday trend of HYG with some minor positive support early in the week as the SPX 150-ma was tagged for a second time, giving traders some confidence in a bounce off extreme bearish sentiment.

The stronger 3 min chart shows almost no support early in the week and distribution throughout the week, I do expect HYG to make its way to a primary trend lower low which is already significantly dislocated to the downside vs the SPX, in a bear market.

 Yields which have recently been acting as a good leading indicator are negatively dislocated to the downside, they tend to pull on the market like a magnet meaning SPX lower in to next week is the highest probability by far.

 And High Yield Credit can't keep diverging vs the SPX like this before the SPX has to move lower toward HY credit's reality. None of this week's move was chased by pros.

And of course longer term Industrials and Transports remain at a significant divergence or non-confirmation for Dow theory fans.

As for short term charts, I don't think anything overcomes the news and we really don't know what the news is going to be. However thus far I have not put out the VXX long call/add-to call, one of the reasons is this SPY chart (1 min), if we close like this then the concept of 3C charts picking up where they left off kicks in and the most probable outcome would be some early week/Monday market strength, but this is largely the SPY with little confirmation in the other averages. I suspected this would lead to an end of day bounce, but it's looking more like early next week/Monday morning price action.

SPY 1 min.

As for the IWM, the best it has was in line today...

 IWM 1 min in line-price confirmation all day today

That's about the best and don't forget, this is VERY short term.

The larger trends and higher probabilities are quite negative thus I think we see significant downside next week, but beware the Greek rumors unless sourced.

 At the next chart, 2 min SPY there's NO migration of the divergence so it is weak and stands alone. The 2 min chart shows the same as everything else, distribution in to this week's price strength.

 SPY 5 min leading negative

And IWM leading negative

As for futures, the short term charts are cloudy as well...

However the ones that matter....

 TF/R2K futures 3 min leading negative, so the short term 1 min in line or SPY 1 min negative, is trumped by the 3 min chart, it's just the 1 min chart is the most immediate price movement.

 TF 10 min leading negative

NQ 10 min leading negative

ES 15 min leading negative

TF 60 leading negative.

It's a bit of a mystery , if we don't rally in to the close, why the SPX would bounce early in the week, I'm NOT playing it, but will use it to enter VXX longs or additional shorts.

The longer term trend charts through this week look horrible, it was a hollow counter trend bounce off the 150- I suspect we slice right below it next week.