The Week Ahead

I'm fine carrying some downside positions in to next week, including Trade Ideas from this week including FAZ (3x short Financials), SRTY (3x short Russell 2000), UVXY (32x long Short Term VIX futures), SQQQ (3x Short QQQ), QQQ 8/21 $112 Puts, BIS (2x short NASDAQ Bio-Techs).

The EUR/USD which as a carry cross has sponsored this week's bounce along with HYG, some VIX smack-downs, is clearly looking to make a downside reversal.

 USD/JPY (candlesticks) vs S&P E-mini futures (purple).

While the USD/JPY looks to be in line as the momentum of the bounce in everything other than the NDX has turned lateral to down, the $USDX and Yen futures are pointing to a clear change next week. I've gone through 9 different timeframes for each futures so it's impossible for me to get them all out, but these are some examples of strong timeframes and divergences that should lead trade next week to the downside.

The 15 min $USDX which was positive at the start of the bounce and leading negative now. This also has implications for both USO/Oil and GLD, both of which look pretty positive, USO a bit more than GLD right now, but I think that's just because GLD needs a little wider reversal process off today's gap.

Thus I have no problem carrying the USO long (call position) with 8/21 expiration in to next week the same with GLD, I just want to give the charts the time they need to put in a decent reversal with confirming signals before adding to them which is the same thing posted as the positions were put out this week as partial/spec positions.

This is the 10 min Yen Futures with a leading positive divgerence, thus with $USD negative and Yen positive, the USD/JPY should reverse back to the downside. I suspect this week has been used to close out the USD/J{Y carry trade and that's why those divergences are showing up so strongly as pros are able to close the carry trade at a much better price point than a loss which I suspect , after we break the SPX 200-day there will be no coming back for sentiment.

As for Index futures, it looks to me they need about a half a day to finish up, although that's a pretty specific prediction, but the charts are clearly negative.

I like to see the 5 min charts clearly negative before entering a position in the direction of the divergence. The Q's have been the strongest so their 5 min chart is probably the most important to me.

NQ 5 min timing chart is technically negative. By the time futures open and the cash market opens Monday, this could be a much wider divergence, but it's at a negative now.

As for the larger trend in to next week...

 Es from a positive divergence at the start of the bounce to a leading negative divergence, a typical cycle (bounce cycle).

 Russell 2000 futures also positive near the start of the bounce and deeply leading negative currently.

 I have mentioned several times that the Dow Futures seem to look the worst which is strange because at past market tops they have he;lld out the longest and been the best relative performer in a bear market.

This is the 15 min YM chart.

 This is the 60 min YM chart which shows no accumulation at the start of the bounce meaning it wasn't strong enough to print on the chart, but as I said before the bounce began, it would be a risk off bounce used to sell in to, the leading negative divergence/distribution is very clear.

 As for the confirming VIX futures, not VIX or even VXX, but VIX futures, they have an exceptionally clear and strong leading positive divergence (15 min)

And /VX 30 min.

Thus there's excellent confirmation between FX, Equities, Treasuries and VIX futures. I suspect we have some time early in the week to add additional positions, but I'm also  very comfortable going in to the weekend already holding significant positions. If we can add additional positions Monday, I'd do so, I don't think anything is going to change these charts which are far beyond intraday.

Otherwise, I spec with head fakes in, we are at the pivot to a downside move that eventually slices through the SPX 200 dma 

Let me get this out before the market closes