MARKET UPDATE

It looks like we are at or pretty darn close to our pivot considering today is a monthly options expiration day/pin. As far as this last bounce off the 200-day moving average, I will admit I was a little surprised considering how strong of a counter trend move it has been (which is what I've been talking about for 6+ months-counter trend moves being some of the strongest you'll ever see because they need to be in order to be convincing) to see the breadth charts last night. I thought they'd probably still be well within deterioration, but probably hit their highest high of the year which is still not to say much for them, but when seeing these...(with last night's commentary below)

"The Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 40-Day Moving Average. In a normal, fairly healthy market this average runs around 80% , it hasn't moved above 60% this year and has been as low as 20% with a current reading of just over 40%, so despite a head fake move, a short squeeze, a week long bounce that has been the best bounce of the year, the Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 40-Day Moving Average has refused to make a higher high (green).

The Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 200-Day Moving Average vs the SPX (red) which usually runs around +70% in a normal market. Not only is the indicator making a series of lower highs and lows, but is at the lowest high pivot of the year."

I'll admit I was surprised, but in a good way, in a way that tells me that we have been on the right track . For those of you who have seen these charts over a 2-3 year period, you know just how bad they are overall, at less than half their normal readings, but more specifically through the year of 2015, the series of lower highs and lower lows even with this last counter trend bounce, was good to see.

As for intraday, there's a feeling of an op-ex pin on a monthly expiration, but as I also posted earlier today, there's also a pretty ugly feeling on a day that is otherwise pretty boring until the afternoon (after 2 pm usually).

 The dispersion between the averages today is somewhat interesting, take the DIA above vs the QQQ . The DIA as I have been saying the last few days has had some of the worst looking charts and I suppose it's delivering on that today.

As far as the bounce cycle goes, from stage 1 base to stage 2 bounce/mark up, stage 3 top with a head fake move, I have to say the 3C chart is textbook for a cycle, especially as we get in to what looks to have been the head fake area, with strong confirmation in the leading negative divergence.

 The SPY intraday looks to be mostly in line, I suspect this is the op-ex pin.

It too has an interesting chart with the first accumulation area and the first head fake below the 200-day which was NOT accumulated, which is why we waited rather than enter new positions. Yet again the stages here look pretty clear, the divergence looks right for them, but when you consider the Breadth charts I started with and why they look so bad, all you have to do is simply look at this very same 5 min chart in context since the May SPX head fake failure.

This is the exact same 5 min chart in context of the trend. I marked the bounce off the 150-day which failed and sliced through the average and now the bounce off the 200-day which should have a more serious psychological effect when it cuts below the 200-day.

 As for the Q's they still have not made any move toward confirmation of that gap.

The IWM however may be one of my favorite charts, whether the best performer or not I'm not sure, but one of the nicest , textbook plays of our concepts.

Intraday it looks to have found some light support, after all an op ex pin can't have the underlying asset sliding too far from the max-pain level.

Looking at the IWM's cycle, it's not the strongest head fake move, it was the day we were looking for it and the 3C confirmation through the bounce cycle again is looking excellent.
If the IWM would bounce a bit intraday, I'd like to add to the SRTY long  and/or perhaps a put.

 As far as it's chart in context...

 The intraday NYSE TICK fell off today since yesterday (white vertical hash mark).

And the overall Custom TICK Indicator shows breadth falling apart, I'm not sure if it's easier to see with nothing drawn on the chart or with some reference points so I put in as little as possible.

This is the overall TICK custom breadth chart since the bounce.

So far I'm pretty happy with the way the charts have been moving. Counter trend moves and head fake moves are almost always going to be very impressive, they have a job to do, but that's also what makes them so lucrative to trade.

Right now it feels like the max-pain op-ex lull so we'll keep watching for additional opportunities.