Op-Ex Pin Should Be Ending

The 2 p.m. hour has past and that typically means the op-ex pin is ending as most contracts are settled, I don't know if you get the annoying constant calls from your broker regarding what you want to do with any option positions that are expiring on op-ex as I do, but if you do, you'll probably understand why the pin tends to end around 2 p.m.

This typically leads to the market doing just about whatever it wants, but the last 2 hours tend to give us some of the best 3C data of the week, sometimes in line with price action from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m., sometimes contradicting it.

The TICK chart alone shows that this concept is pretty accurate, take a look at the sudden change in the NYSE intraday TICK come 2 pm.

Suddenly it starts moving higher right at 2 pm after being in an ambiguous range all day.

If the initial indications of TICK hold up, I'll be looking to add to the IWM short/SRTY and/r IWM puts if they offer a decent discount.

Otherwise, I'll be starting to go through all of the Futures and Leading Indicators and may be adding additional positions so long as there's good confirmation for them, but speaking on a more broad basis, I suspect we are at or entering the final phase of this week's bounce which was forecast last week, to last through this week, inclusive of head fakes, reversal process, etc.

I'll have updates for you and/or additional positions as we go as well as the Week Ahead post.