The Week Ahead

I'll have to make this quick, but I think I pretty much elaborated on what my views were which were mostly based on real chart data, some gut feeling and some concept.

My best guess would be that we see a head fake move early in the week, likely Monday, but this is almost exclusively based on concept, but a strong concept.

The only chart that really backs it is also the concept of 3C charts picking up where they left off and as we get closer to the close, I don't even have any really great examples of that. The other issue nagging me is leading indicators.

However there's some very ugly charts and these are just the kind of charts that are "screaming", the kind I don't ignore and if we do get a head fake move early next week, I'll gladly add additional positions and the options positions then.

Otherwise, I want to have some more positions in place as these are just plain ugly.

 QQQ 15 min-one of the charts I was looking for movement in today and we certainly got it.

 SPY 10 min is another leading at a new negative low, so am I concerned with a head fake move if we get one early next week? You look at the chart and tell me.

And IWM 10 min is just a disaster. I can't ignore charts like this and we have good confirmation in index futures.

If we do get a bounce or a head fake early next week, I'd be looking to use the price strength to enter additional options positions at full size, otherwise most of today just wasn't a great set up for them.

We have a pretty decent set of core shorts and select longs in place, I added a couple late this week and I have no problem adding a few more. 

The bottom line is I don't see any way that we can go in to next week with charts like the ones above and not see the downside event that I've been expecting, remember what I said yesterday...we are not far off from a major psychological change and the market is more about perception than anything else.


More to follow after the close. Thanks you for all the kind birthday wishes you sent Andrea at Support@Wolf-on-WallStreet.com today, she's really excited to be part of the group!