TRADES FOR TOMORROW

The market is still ugly, we could bounce or see the S&P head to the $1030 area before we get a meaningful bounce, I hope it comes sooner.

I've listed longs and shorts, but don't be afraid to tighten stops or use limit orders close to the stop level, that is probably the best tactic right now until we see what this market is going to do, but you do want short exposure. I really like EBIX (S) right here.

Other positions that look interesting include: MEG, GNBK, OESX all long and JEF (S).

The dollar remains strong but 3C suggests a pullback, which may give the market room to bounce.

Any questions-Email me as usual.

Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

Here's where we stand

If you have been following this site since early on, you probably have heard me call this that "Cats and Dogs Rally".

Here's how it works, there's a period toward the end of a bull run or bull market where people feel like the new bull has taken off and they sat it out and missed it, so they look for cheap stocks to buy up and smart money knows this. The stock pattens prove it. It's an explosive period because they are low volume, low price stocks that move huge.

If you follow me on Trade-Guild you know I've been saying for months this is a "Historic" bear market rally-not the start of a bull and I expect new lows to be made. Well make hey while the sun is shining and that's what we did. The fact is, over the last week, especially since earnings started with Alcoa's flop, sentient has finally flipped and stocks and rallies have nothing to do with value, and everything to do with market sentiment. So I'm not going to list anymore of the CAT and DOG longs. If I did, I'd just be repeating what's already on the list. A few that re still viable IMO:

SSN, CXM, MOVE, PEBO may have some more upside after that nice run, CRTX, MNTG, CMM, AMCC, and ENG.

If you have one not on the list and it looks ok or you want a second opinion just email me, then by all means, hold onto it, but be very conservative in how much you put into it. The last chance run for any of these stocks is entirely dependent on a market bounce which I think we may get.

Here's the new reality. the focus here is going to switch, not because I want it to, it's because you take what the market offers. The watchlist I look at and add to every night is about 400 stocks, out of which 30% are doing nothing 20% look like longs, and 50% or maybe more are stunningly amazing short set-ups that are 3 days of bounce away from picture perfect entries.

Stocks fall faster then they rise because fear is stronger then greed. These are exceptionally high probability shorts and with a bounce, they'll be in perfect position with little risk. They won't make you 20% in a day, but they will make you money and as we go along, I'll show you how to make more than 100% in a short position. I'll also start giving you the Ultra ETF's that I think are going to make a lot of money.

So it's sad that the CATS and DOGS fun is over, but now is the time that we can make bigger commitments to longer term positions and make a lot of money over the next several months.

BUT! For now, you have to be patient. That is the only edge you have over Wall Street, patience. Wait for the bounce. I have hundreds of stocks that are perfect shorts-look at GS and JPM-they are picture perfect, if the just bounce a little. So don't swing for the fences, tke whatever the market gives you in these longs if it bounces and take it fairly quick. Then get ready to back up the truck and get serious about committing capital to high probability shorts.

The second shoe is about to drop.

The Market Waits

Even not knowing about tonight's State of the Union Address, it's clear the market is waiting on something and it looks exceptionally dangerous right not. I have 100 shorts that need a bounce to be perfect set-ups, but they ned the bounce and the market yesterday at the close was ugly. So play it safe right now-be conservative. We'll know soon enough.

Strange Times

The market is due for a bounce in my opinion, it looks like it wants to bounce, but it is not acting well-that makes this a very dangerous time. There are a ton of great looking shorts that if they just bounced, would be perfect. On the other hand-the market doesn't need to bounce, it's not oversold, it can continue down. So it's a tough call right now, but I'm going with "wait for the bounce". In the meantime-longs that still look good to me:

SSN, TXCC, MBRK, CXM, CRTX, FOLD, MTLK and BOFL

All the other ides will be on the spread sheet, just be patient, you'll get a fat pitch. And if you do go for the shorts now, thinking you'll miss the bus, be careful and limit those positions so they can absorb a bounce.

Good luck.

I Hate Mondays

They usually carry over whatever the market's behavior was on Friday-usually. There have been M&A announcements which are almost lways typical for a Mondy and there have been some recently-that gives the mrket a boost.

Are we oversold? Not even close-especially not when considering how ovverbought the market has been. However there's support right at the Oct. highs and they're not far away. So a bounce may be coming soon.

Until then I don't want to give out to many positions as the market movement is going to cut about half the probability, but for sure check out



SSN, CXM, PSUN, MBRK, FOLD, and CTIC all long.

**Here's a few more-some are familiar from older lists but still good-all long




NCS
GBNK
MOVE
TIBB
PEBO
CRTX
IDRA
TXCC
CMM
WSBF
TSFG
MNTG


No shorts today, we'll wait for the bounce first.

Jan. 22 Trades

Here's the newest trades for Friday Jan 22, 2010

Patience Pays Off-Trades for Jan 21

BOFL flew today, that's why I'm still including ENG and SSN if you haven't taken a position there yet. MOT has been on the list, but it is still within shorting range. All the ETF's I mentioned are worth a foot in the door to get a position started.

The dollar broke out of a bull flag today-Bad news for the market. Be careful with oil/Gold right now.

I thought this would be a "V" shape reversal, but all of the sudden I'm seeing tops everywhere.

I listed a few tonight that have the potential for big gains-the high fliers, but there's a lot of nice shorts there too and if you don't have some short exposure, I'd be careful with the longs.

I'll update the targets in the tomorrow-all trades are at the open/at market and as always, feel free to email me about any of the ideas. A few I really like-FBP and BBX plus what I listed above.

Last Night's Decision

In my opinion was the right call-we are seeing 2-week new lows in most averages and on heavy volume. The stocks I said to stick with are for the most part, all doing well. BOFL had a huge gain earlier this am and I still like the other two, especially SSN. The ETF's I mentioned and MOT are working well too.

Who Knows at This Point?

I still really like ENG, SSN and BOFL long, they look as ready to move as any stock I've listed here.

Volatility

Tonight I'm not adding any new positions, I have ideas but keeping money is a lot easier than making it. With the election in Mass over, there's potential for all kinds of things to happen. There are enough stocks posted the last several days to pick from if you want to play the market. I would do so on this condition-the market appears to show signs of a gp up and the stocks you select long show signs of a gap up. I suggest taking any significant profits and tighten up stops as we do not know what this will turn into.

I have a good feeling this could turn into a bear trap, that is why I urge you to consider taking any 1-day profits you might acquire. If the market gaps up and reverses on volume to the down side, it's ti,e to look at the shorts on ,y list of recent. Also FAZ or SKF, MZZ and TWM are worth dabbling in if that scenario seems to play out-you can always add and stop out if need be, just keep it reasonable. the portfolio I'm managing has gone nearly 50% cash and the rest of the positions are at 1% risk.

Keep the questions coming, finally I'm getting the emails. This is the best way for be to be of service to you. If I see something significant, I will post intraday so check back. Citi's earnings didn't seem to be received well by the street, at least in AH. This is the change in sentiment I've been sensing.

The Trades for Tuesday the 19th are up

Just click Current list and scroll down to the bottom-they will be listed as the 18th as that is when I published them, but are for execution on the open at market.

There's a few possible big mover longs. Friday's list just about all the longs sat and the shorts moved, so there's some good candidates on Friday's list as well. I'm hanging back a little, hedging a little as we remain at a transitional moment in the market with extreme volatility possible. The close on Friday was ugly so you should have some exposure on the short side already.

The election in Mass. has been called out by Cramer as a probable market moving event, it'll probably be so just because of the number of his blind followers. This is a short term event-don't  get knocked off any long term pans you ay have. We'll look at how this may influence the midterms as a Republican victory may very well peel off some of the President's coalition of Democrat's that are up for mid-term elections-translation, it may scare the pants off of them and cause them to abandon the President's agenda. This would have a more lasting impact.

Any questions, always feel free to email me at Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

**SSN look particularly interesting.

EEE-Evergreen Energy Inc.

This is a stock you are going to want to look at for the long term. The industry doesn't suffer much from economic downturns, they are on Obama's Christmas card list and the chart is really nice.

There's a double bottom with a capitulation event, volume looks prefect on a rounding bottom o the second bottom. This is a longer term position and I brought it up weeks ago on Trade Guild, some people made some decent money wit it, but take a look and consider it. Email me with questions.

Just thought I'd mention it, SSN is looking real good as well-again a long-term position.

Sentiment

We are in earnings season and sentiment seems to be shifting. Of all the ideas that I combined into one list yesterday, every single short is working today while not much else is, unless you caught my comments on PEIX and used your own stop and not mine. I had the accumulation right, the stop wrong by about $.16 cents. PEIX recovered well over 30% today.

All the shorts listed are still within good positioning. they are not likely to be as explosive, but they may very well be good entries to a fruitful trend, in which case, I hope you have TeleChart or Stockfinder-Buttons for them are at the top of the page and I can share my trend channel with you which will catch the majority of the trend instead of guessing how low is low enough. this is a proven indicator, not an arbitrary opinion.

Despite the pullback in al of the longs from last night (don't forget it's a Friday and this happened last Friday as well)-all the positions still look good, no technical damage has been done with the exception of the reversal play DGLY-unless it makes a recovery before the day's end.

So for now, hang in there, take a look at the shorts. As I've been saying for a week, lower your risk, honor your stops (which don't have to be the same as mine-those are suggestions only), and be patient. Now is not the time to swing for the fences, that time will come, but not yet. capital preservation is what's important right now and patience-patience is the one edge you have over Wall Street, you don't have to be invested, cash is a position too.

Trades for the 15th

Just scroll down to 1/14/10 and you'll see about 10 ideas. Be sure to read the notes, follow risk management and evaluate the stops, make sure they are right for you. Any questions please email me. SSN that I listed below also looks good. Don't forget, to click "Current List"

PEIX

May be offering n intraday opportunity here. It's based on the 1 min chart. You could buy some here at $1.88 an put a stop (mental only) at $1.81. It's showing some intraday buying right now which leads me to think, maybe it recovers some of what it lost today and that would be a decent 1-day gain.

OK, HERE THEY ARE

I can't or don't have time to update trades more than  a week old, but since there are many and I tell you to look back at past lists, I'm going to name the list, give you the trades that still look good, it's your duty to look at that day's list, the notes and email me with questions regarding stops, targets or timeframes.

So Here they are:


High Probability Trades

Jan 7 LIST

ASTM
CYPB
GRPE
WGA

Jan 8 LIST

NLST
OSK (s)
XOMA
ACAD
DSTI
STEM

Jan 11 LIST

OXGN
STSA
WSBF
WAL

Jan 12 LIST

MOT (s)
JDSU (s)
SCON SPECULATIVE
GU

Jan 13 LIST

ADTN (s)
BEST
TNS (s)
NTGR (s)
SSN LOOKS GREAT

Also the ETf's I posted were for you to see the trend, maybe you like one now, but they were not meant to be buy or sell short ideas, just to show you where the money seems to be flowing.

Good luck! More importantly-Risk management! If you need help or direction to resources, let me know. Over the long haul if you use risk management, you will (I believe) make a lot of money on these ideas.

CXM

OK, this am, we have two stocks up 16% and 12% from last night's list, CXM looks really good, but I don't know when it breaks out. It's a nice rounding base, volume is perfect and it is showing the signs typical before a breakout. I'd consider getting some, not a huge position until we get more confirmation, but I do believe this is an extremely high probability trade.

A Conundrum-I need your feedback

I had a member mention that there are a lot of stocks I list to sort through and it would be easier to have a a few of the high probability each day and limit the list. To save time, here' my response,

" I struggle with the same issue you mention. Believe me! I'd like to give 3 stocks that I know for sure will pop tomorrow and that would be the easiest and best for all involved. I spend all day looking at the market and take an hour break after close to talk to my significant other then spend the rest of the night until the list is updated going through each idea-and usually publish at 11pm-1am so it's about 7-8 hours at night plus market hours, running scans, back tests, literally looking at thousands of stocks.

So the difficulty is, this market may be nearing an end of the Bull and ready to reverse. These positions took someone with a lot of money time to accumulate and they know it's difficult to get the demand and markup they need to sell at a profit if the market turns, so many patterns are breaking out early, before they are fully done accumulating. I'm seeing it more everyday. These are patterns I would not normally list in WOWS, but anyone of them could be the one that breaks out today or tomorrow. Also I'm throwing shorts in for those who believe we are close to a reversal and some trades that aren't going to be #1 performers, but have huge potential over the next few months. I try to make the distinctions in the note section. The idea to really making money there is to probably take on multiple positions, but ones that fit with your style and analysis. The risk management I talk so much about should allow you to be wrong many times and still have plenty left for the big one that we get almost everyday. If done properly, you won't lose more than 1-2% of your portfolio on any one trade and most cases, if you follow my guidelines on risk, a lot less than that. Even in the case of a 10% gap down, my guidelines suggest a position doesn't take up more than 10% of your portfolio, so still you are at a 1% loss. It's difficult for me because I have limited the list and not included stocks I liked and saw them run 30% the next day. It's a conundrum! But of everyone who signed up, I've only had emails thanking me and that they made money , etc. You know I end every post "if you are not sure, email me" I haven't received one of those emails yet. So I'll try to add more details to the notes, "this is a long term trade, this is one for quick pop, etc" and you can find what you think you want to trade, but if it doesn't pop the first day, it doesn't mean it won't, but if I continue to list past trades that haven't popped, the list gets that much longer, but they are still great looking trades. And unfortunately our spread sheet can't show you the possibilities of gains that were there. For example a stock makes a 100% gain for the day, but closes down to 50% gain (happened yesterday). I say-take those gifts. So while some stocks may only show a 5% gain or even a loss, at some point there may have very well been a 30-40% gain available, which I say "take some or all of that gift". In the long run, I think the majority of these stocks move big. The ones that don't -even if they are at a 12% loss, shouldn't cost you more than 1-2%. Thanks for the feedback, I'm going to take it into consideration and see if there' a better way to do this. In the meantime, EMAIL ME! Tell me what you are looking for and I'll point you to the most probable candidate."

So, I need feedback. How can I make this list the most useful for you? I can suggest if there's a stock that hasn't broken out and pre-market action suggests a gap up-that's a high probability trade that should be bought. I could list limit orders on the breakout, but then you'll miss a lot of the gains. Give me your feedback because I work a lot to bring you these ideas and it doesn't help anyone if they are not helpful. So tell me what you think will make this better for you. And as always, email me! I am willing to do what I can to help you attain your goals, but everyone is different, so one size doesn't fit all and the only way I can personalize it is if if you email me your questions about the trades you like or the kinds of trades you are most comfortable with.

Thanks! 

21 New positions added

Make sure you read my posts below and if an idea is less than a week old and hasn't moved it probably is still in play, you can always email me and ask.

The newest ideas are at the bottom of the list, as always they execute at market on the open unless otherwise specified in the notes.

Just click "Current Stock list" to the right and scroll down to the 13th, ideas to be executed the 14th.

Good luck.

Look to the Other Lists

Almost every-time I post I say look at the older lists, the are only a week old and if something looks good and hasn't moved, take a look at it. Here's what I mean:

From the Jan 7 Trades: MRNA up 51% today alone as high as 96% and MA still looks like a decent short.

From Jan 8th Trades: CTIC jan 8 up 17% and LJPC today 15%/35% to date
NLST still looks like a good long
so does ASTM and OSK looks like a good short.

From Jan 11th Trades: FBP hadn't moved so was still active and traded up over 8% today
MOVE is up 15% since the 11th and added 6+% today and AREX is up almost 8% today.

DSTI looks good long as does OXGN, STSA, and WAL which is offering excellent risk/reward ratio right now.

From Jan 12th's  Trade list: GOOG has moved, but still looks good for a short, MOT short, we added today to our position there and GU looks good on the long side with excellent risk/reward properties. So I write it all the time, look at past trades. If you are not sure about something you like, email me. I just can't keep on top of every idea I post-Goldman Sachs admitted they can't even do it so my one man band certainly can't, but I can answer your emails.

Good luck and see the post below.

Update

I like just about everything on last night's list. We added to our MOT short, but they all look good. i don't see anything there I don't like. SSN took a .02 hit but still, I like it.

New positions for Jan 13th at the bottom of the list

I'm seeing an ugly market that looks as if it could reverse to the down side the same way it did to the upside, in a day or two, not a big top, which makes things more difficult. In any case, there's some nice positions there tonight and if the market is up tomorrow you may get even better positioning on the shorts. The stops are just areas I recommend, feel free to adjust to your own style and as always, email me with any questions.

there are still longs on previous lists that haven't broken out and look good, take a look especially at the biotechs.

Update

The newer trades are below , just scroll down until you see 1/11/10 for the date, those are posted today the 11th for execution the morning of the 12th unless otherwise specified. I also added notes on executed trades for the 10th. I will try to get the older lists up, in the meantime if you need support on an older list/position, email me.

One Finger in the Air

And that finger is trying to figure out the prevailing winds. Take a look at the most recent post at Trade-Guild.net tonight. I'm going to let the lists I have published already stand for tonight because there are still some great charts/ideas there-it's market cooperation that is needed and I'm not sure we are going to get it. As I've been saying, tighten up, book some profits if you have them, don't swing for the fences and use sound risk management, we may be on the verge of a serious correction.

Take a look at the ETFs posted today, those went through 3 different scans and had to pass all of them-out of many hundreds. They give you a feel for the market and where we might be looking next.

In the portfolio I am managing, we took a decent position today in FAZ, it may be early, but we're getting our toes wet. Other market short positions we are holding (for the longer term) include: EDZ, SKF, SCC and SSG.

If I see anything really interesting I'll update the site so check back as I do intraday updates when needed. If you have questions, email me. ASTM and MATK are an example of two stocks on the lists that are looking interesting, but honor those stops and you'll be around to cash out the double bagger.

Market Long and Short ETF's

As I mentioned, I'm looking for a change of trend in the market and today has been a little spooky. So I put together two lists for you. I ran 3 different scans using my 3C indicators (3 differently constructed versions for better confirmation. The first spreadsheet are ETF's showing significant 3C distribution and are likely to lead the market to the downside. Remember, everything on this list is at some point, a potential short; so pay close attention to whether it is a Ultra or Ultra short. For example DDM is the double-long version of the Dow and I consider this ETF a short (some you will not be able to short and will have to look for an inverse ETF or stocks in that sector-TeleChart provides you with the components of all ETFs). There are no inverse ETF's on this list, but for example, had an Ultra-Short ETF of the Dow be on this short list, it would mean that the Dow is a buy since the ETF would be a short and this list would have you short that ETF. A little convoluted, I know, but I want to show you what areas of the economy are under distribution and which are under accumulation.

None of these currently are to be taken as the trading list for tomorrow, although you may seem some that you do like immediately. This is simply a "get ready" list. To see the current list just click the link to current list and it will be brought up for you. Don't forget to check past lists. We made a quick 60% today alone in 30 minutes on PEIX, but it has since headed significantly higher.

    Short List

TICKER	ETF NAME	LAST CLOSE	LAST VOLUME
AAXJ	iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index	57.71	1291
AGQ	Proshares Ultra Silver	67.32	2867
BGU	Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares	57.13	33070
BWX	SPDR Lehman International Treasury Bond Fund ETF	57.16	1938
DDM	ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF	45.53	17058
DIA	DIAMONDS Trust Series ETF	106.11	49119
DJP	iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN	43.28	3162
EDC	Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3x Shares	151.2	5983
EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF	43.2	411203
ERX	Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares	46.22	18305
EWG	iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF	22.8	5236
EWM	iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund ETF	11.1	13992
EWQ	iShares MSCI France Index Fund ETF	27.09	1553
EWW	iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF	51.34	11993
FAS	Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares	84.99	167390
FXA	Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF	92.48	1229
IAT	iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks Index Fund ETF	22.39	2130
IHF	iShares Dow Jones US Health Care Providers Index Fund ETF	50.74	1526
ILF	iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF	49.82	13536
IWM	iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF	64.52	488117
IWR	iShares Russell MidCap Index Fund ETF	85.25	5811
IYE	iShares Dow Jones US Energy Sector Index Fund ETF	35.03	2008
IYG	iShares Dow Jones US Financial Services Index Fund ETF	57.04	3227
IYR	iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund ETF	46	106295
IYW	iShares Dow Jones US Technology Sector Index Fund ETF	58.21	5936
MDY	SPDRs S&P Midcap Trust Series ETF	136.51	12353
PGJ	PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio ETF	25.72	1287
PHD	Pioneer Floating Rate Trust	11.75	988
PIN	PowerShares India Portfolio ETF	22.98	2627
QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ	61.43	50387
QQQQ	PowerShares QQQTrust Ser 1	46.55	888701
SMH	HOLDRS Semiconductor ETF	28.52	208796
SPY	SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF	114.57	1263692
SSO	ProShares Ultra S&P 500	40.37	102506
UPRO	ProShares UltraPro S&P500	163.6	12414
URE	ProShares Ultra Real Estate ETF	6.91	104023
USD	ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF	34.54	2945
UWM	ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 ETF	30.3	21737
UYG	ProShares Ultra Financials	6.15	141654
UYM	ProShares Ultra Basic Materials	37	25819
VBR	Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF	56.24	1784
XLF	SPDRs Select Sector Financial ETF	15.22	908750
XLY	SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Discretionary ETF	30.39	64380
XME	SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF	58.73	39158
XRT	SPDR S&P Retail ETF	36.52	112515

Again, the ETFs below are ones I consider to be a "buy" whether they are Ultra-short or long. You will see some repeats such as short the Dow above and buy the Ultra-short Dow below; this is just further confirmation of what we are seeing in the markets. I'll update the lists further tonight, but obviously this is a time for a little caution on the long side of the market.

Long List

TICKER	ETF NAME	LAST CLOSE	LAST VOLUME
BGZ	Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x	15.67	39900
DOG	ProShares Short Trust Dow30	51.34	1451
DRV	Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares	12.93	17218
DUG	ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas	11.42	25216
DXD	ProShares UltraShort Dow 30	28.31	24558
EDZ	Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x	4.39	20360
EEV	Ultrashort Msci Emerg Mrkt	9.99	7951
ERY	Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares	9.63	14088
EUO	ProShares UltraShort Euro	18.49	5104
FAZ	Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares	16.81	415538
FXP	ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF	7.7	34483
PSQ	ProShares Short QQQ ETF	42.9	3287
QID	ProShares UltraShort QQQ	18.38	137251
REW	ProShares UltraShort Technology	21.87	1185
RWM	ProShares Short Russell2000	42.75	1563
SCO	ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil	12.53	22058
SDS	ProShares UltraShort S&P500	33.14	196923
SEF	ProShares Short Financials	42.38	987
SH	ProShares Short S&P500 ETF	51.12	7810
SKF	ProShares UltraShort Financials	22.08	74010
SMN	ProShares Ultrashort Basic Material	7.35	15068
SPXU	ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500	33.4	16334
SRS	ProShares UltraShort Real Estate	7.48	139677
SSG	ProShares UltraShort Semiconductor	17.54	2763
TWM	ProShares UltraShort Russell2000	23.55	32978
TZA	Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x	8.85	190041
UNG	US Nat Gas FD ETF	10.41	279208
UUP	PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund	22.84	73740
YCS	ProShares UltraShort Yen	21.22	1571
ZSL	Proshares Ultrashort Silver	3.97	11065