Last night I made a pretty clear case about my bearishness on Gold, today and yesterday we saw the Judo concept in action again. Textbooks on Technical Analysis teach us that we should see a nice clean break down from an ascending wedge like the one shown here-it is a bearish formation despite rising prices. So most technicians are at a loss and consider a breakout to the upside like we saw yesterday as a failed pattern, shorts cover, longs jump in the trade. Another noose innocently propagated by authors of TA books is the concept of a failed trade means you should enter the trade in the other direction, in this case, (assuming I'm correct about this being a false breakout from the wedge), then the trader gets whacked twice.
Computers and online brokers revolutionized trading. I can remember when everything was about fundamentals and technical analysis was like witchcraft. Now it's mainstream, just like sentiment being so lopsided that the trade moves counter to sentiment, technical analysis is so predictable that Wall Street practices Judo on those traders. One of the worst things in technical analysis is the opinion many have come to, "if the trade failed, it wasn't because of technical analysis, it was because you did not adhere to the concepts of technical analysis". This thought pattern is an absolute gift to Wall Street, it means they can take technicians out almost every time. That's why what we do here at WOWS in a way, is revolutionary. 3C is the effect of thinking about technical analysis for myself and not following the books. Really I got lucky, I doubt it's more then that. I'm a good technician, I understand technical analysis. However, I've seen enough that I can now view technical analysis and the set-ups not like a technician, but like the crooks on Wall Street. I think to beat a crook, you have to be able to think like one.
My greatest ambition is to show you what I have learned and what we together continue to learn. Wall Street is not what our parents thought it was, it's not what we thought it was and truthfully it's probably a lot worse then we can even imagine, but we'll keep learning how they act and we'll use that for one, not to become a victim, to make money and at some point, we may (G-d willing) be able to turn the tables and take the crook's money. That's a day that I will sing from my roof top.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
2 comments:
Hi Brandt,
Did you see my specific query about gold? Appreciate it if you could take a look:
http://wolfonwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/09/wall-street-is-never-as-it-seems-never.html#comments
I'm sorry, I missed it, but I see it now. Send me your email. I have to run out for a bit to get a few things for our interview tomorrow with immigration but when I get back I'll send you an email after I have looked at the ticker you supplied-I can use 3C on it.
My apologies for missing your comment.
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